Cardano’s Midnight (NIGHT) token had a strong start, but the momentum is no longer one-sided. The NIGHT price is still nearly 300% higher than the low after launch. In the past seven days, the price has risen by nearly 70%. However, the sentiment is quickly changing now.
In the last 24 hours, the NIGHT price has decreased by about 10% and is now trading around $0.095.
This pullback is important as it coincides with mixed signals beneath the surface. Some data shows that large players continue to accumulate.
Other signals indicate increasing selling pressure, especially from inflows on exchanges likely related to the airdrop. As January 2026 approaches, the next step will depend less on euphoria and more on whether big money continues to step in.
Large wallets are accumulating Midnight, but exchange supply is rising.
On-chain data from holders clearly shows that there are different types of behaviors.
Exchange balances of NIGHT sharply increased in the past 24 hours. The number of tokens on exchanges rose by 17.97% to approximately 166,140,000 NIGHT tokens. This increase strongly indicates more selling activity.
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Given the recent airdrop and tranche-based distribution of Midnight, a large part of this flow likely comes from early recipients sending their tokens to exchanges to take profits.
At the same time, mega whales are doing the exact opposite.
The top 100 addresses increased their number of tokens by 1.52% in the past 24 hours while the price declined. This means that on a red day, about 3.6 million NIGHT tokens were bought.
In the past seven days, the same mega whales have even increased their holdings by more than 5.6%. They are buying both dips and rises while the price went up nearly 70%.
This divergence is important. Inflows on exchanges show selling pressure in the short term, usually from retail. Mega whale accumulation indicates long-term positioning.
For January 2026, the balance between these two groups will be more important than the movements of the price itself.
Capital flow and momentum show that big money is still the most important.
The whale data does not stand alone. It aligns well with what capital flows and momentum indicators are showing on the chart.
We begin with On-Balance Volume (OBV). OBV shows whether the volume is flowing into or out of an asset. On the 4-hour chart, OBV has decreased along with the price in the last 24 hours. This means that buying pressure in the short term is weaker. For now, the future of the NIGHT price depends on whether OBV stays above the trendline.
But only the weakening of OBV does not tell the whole story.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) adds an important layer. CMF measures whether a lot of money is flowing into or out of the market.
The CMF crossed above the zero line on December 20 and has remained positive since. It flattened out over the past day but did not decline. More importantly, between December 22 and 23, the NIGHT price fell on the 4-hour chart while the CMF continued to rise. This is a bullish divergence.
That suggests that, despite the price declining somewhat, larger wallets continued to buy tokens in the background.
This confirms the Nansen data showing that mega whales are buying during the dip, even though exchange balances increased.
One metric that shows how important big money is.
The VWAP, or Volume-Weighted Average Price, helps to connect these signals. The VWAP shows the average price paid, weighted by volume, and often indicates a short-term trend. NIGHT fell below the VWAP on December 22 and has not reclaimed it since. This indicates short-term weakness and explains why the price momentum has stopped.
Yet, we have seen this same pattern before. On December 15, NIGHT also traded below the VWAP. At that time, the CMF rose out of negative territory, indicating increasing capital inflow. As the CMF strengthened, the price quickly reclaimed the VWAP and rose further. The price surged even harder once the CMF crossed above the zero line.
This history is important. With new tokens, VWAP declines are normal during the early distribution phases. What determines the end result is not the VWAP itself, but whether the capital flow supports a recovery, as was the case earlier.
Simply put: short-term traders are stepping out for a moment (perhaps to take profits), but larger players have not left. As long as the CMF remains positive and whales buy during dips, the current weakness seems more like consolidation than a total trend reversal.
Thus, big money remains the key factor heading into January 2026.
Derivatives and NIGHT price movement determine the risk areas for January 2026.
Now that capital flow is decreasing, the position in derivatives is becoming increasingly important heading into January.
Current liquidation data for the next 7 days shows that the market still has a long preference. On Binance, the long liquidation exposure is about $3.6 million, compared to around $2.9 million on the short side. This difference has narrowed after the recent pullback, but longs remain dominant.
This creates a vulnerable situation.
If the NIGHT price continues to weaken and remains below the VWAP, long positions become vulnerable. A move towards $0.08 would likely trigger forced liquidations, causing the price to drop faster. This scenario fits with a weaker OBV and a stagnant CMF.
Crucial 12-hour price levels for January are:
$0.101 is the first level that NIGHT needs to reclaim. A clear rise above this level reduces direct pressure.
$0.120 is the true confirmation level. A daily close above this brings NIGHT back into price discovery mode and invalidates the current weakness.
$0.071 remains the key support level on the downside. A breakdown below opens the door to deeper declines, towards $0.057 and $0.040.
For January 2026, the price path is clear. If whales continue to buy, the CMF rises again, and the price reclaims the VWAP, NIGHT can stabilize and attempt to enter a new growth phase. However, if the capital support disappears while too many longs remain, there is a chance of a liquidation wave before a real trend recovery is possible.
