The Midnight (NIGHT) token of Cardano has had a quite impressive start, but the upward momentum is no longer one-sided. The current price of NIGHT is still up nearly 300% from the lows after launch. Over the past seven days, this token has maintained an increase of around 70%. However, market sentiment has changed very quickly.
In just the past 24 hours, the price of NIGHT has dropped by about 10%, currently trading around 0.095 USD.
This adjustment move is quite noteworthy as there are currently many mixed signals. Some data indicates that the 'whales' are still continuing to accumulate.
However, there are also signs of increased selling pressure, especially the amount of tokens transferred to exchanges, likely related to the recent airdrop. As the time of January 2026 approaches, the next trend will depend on whether large capital continues to participate in the market or not, rather than just relying on temporary excitement.
Large wallets are accumulating Midnight, but the supply on exchanges is increasing.
On-chain data clearly shows the behavioral differences between investor groups.
The number of NIGHT tokens on exchanges has surged in the past 24 hours. Exchange holdings have increased by 17.97%, bringing the total to about 166.14 million NIGHT tokens. This clearly reflects increased profit-taking activity.
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With the recent airdrop and phased distribution from Midnight, most of the tokens transferred to exchanges likely come from early investors wanting to realize profits.
Meanwhile, large 'whales' are doing the opposite.
The top 100 wallets have increased their holdings by 1.52% in the past 24 hours, even though the price is adjusting. This means about 3.6 million NIGHT tokens were bought even when the market is in the red.
In the past week, this group of whales has increased their holdings by more than 5.6%, steadily accumulating both when the price adjusts and when the price rises sharply by nearly 70%. See details here.
The contrasting movements between the two groups are quite noteworthy. The flow of tokens onto exchanges often reflects short-term selling pressure from retail investors. In contrast, whale accumulation signals that they are preparing for long-term investments.
From now until January 2026, the 'battle' between these two forces will be much more important than the 'headline-grabbing' price fluctuations.
Capital flow and momentum indicate that large capital remains the most important.
Information from whales is also quite consistent with capital flow indicators and price momentum on the charts.
First of all, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator helps track the capital inflow or outflow from assets. On the 4-hour chart, OBV has decreased along with the price over the past 24 hours. This indicates that short-term buying power is weakening. In the short term, the price of NIGHT will depend on whether OBV can stay above the trendline.
However, just looking at OBV is not sufficient to conclude everything.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is also very important for assessing whether large capital is entering or exiting the market.
CMF has risen above the 0 mark since December 20, 2023, and has maintained a positive state since then. Although it has been sideways for the past day, CMF has not declined. Notably, from December 22, 2023, to December 23, 2023, the price of NIGHT decreased on the 4-hour chart, but CMF continued to rise – this is a bullish divergence signal.
This indicates that even when prices are softening, large wallets are quietly accumulating within the market.
This confirms Nansen's data that large whales have bought more as the price drops, even though the amount of coins on exchanges continues to rise.
An indicator showing the importance of large capital flow.
VWAP, or Volume Weighted Average Price, helps us see market signals more clearly. VWAP reflects the average price traded, taking volume into account, and is often used to guide short-term trends. On December 22, 2023, NIGHT dropped below VWAP and has not recovered since. This indicates that the short-term uptrend has weakened, explaining why the price momentum has temporarily stalled.
However, this scenario has occurred before. On December 15, 2023, NIGHT also traded below VWAP. At that time, the CMF indicator was rising from the negative zone, indicating that capital began to flow in stronger. As CMF grew, the price of NIGHT quickly surpassed VWAP and continued to grow. The price increase was even more robust when CMF crossed above the 0 mark.
History has proven that this is important. With new tokens, significant fluctuations below VWAP are normal in the early distribution phase. The deciding factor is not VWAP, but whether capital continues to support recovery.
Simply put, short-term traders may be temporarily taking profits, but the big players have not yet left the market. As long as CMF remains positive and whales continue to buy when the price drops, the current situation may just be a process of accumulation, not a major trend reversal.
This shows that large capital remains a key factor as we move into January 2026.
The derivatives movement and the price of NIGHT define the risk area for January 2026.
As capital flow stagnates, strategies in the derivatives market will become even more important at the beginning of January 2026.
Current liquidation data for the next 7 days shows that the market still leans towards the buying side (long). On Binance, the amount of long position liquidations is about 3.6 million USD, while short position liquidations are around 2.9 million USD. This gap has narrowed after the recent price drop, but the buying side still holds the advantage.
This creates a fragile balance for the market.
If the price of NIGHT continues to weaken and remains below VWAP, buying positions will become increasingly vulnerable to liquidation. If the price drops to around 0.08 USD, the risk of forced liquidation will increase rapidly, causing prices to plunge further. This scenario is quite similar to the weakening of OBV and CMF.
The important price levels in the 12-hour frame for January 2026 are as follows:
0.101 USD is the first price level NIGHT needs to reclaim. If it safely surpasses this level, short-term selling pressure will ease.
0.120 USD is the true confirmation threshold. If the price closes daily above this level, NIGHT will enter a new price exploration area, weakening current negative signals.
0.071 USD remains the most critical support. If this support breaks, NIGHT could drop deeper around 0.057 USD or even 0.040 USD.
For January 2026, the direction is quite clear. If whales continue to buy, CMF rises again, and the price surpasses VWAP, NIGHT will stabilize and may enter a new up phase. Conversely, if capital flow decreases while the buying position remains too large, the market will face the risk of widespread liquidation before finding a sustainable trend.
