Bitcoin has dropped 22.54% this quarter, marking the sharpest quarterly decline since 2018. With less than 10 days left in the year, the chances of achieving the positive price targets that many experts forecast for Bitcoin are almost gone.
Market experts are now reevaluating short-term expectations, providing insights on how Bitcoin will close this year and what it might look like in 2026.
Experts point out the key milestones for Bitcoin as the market approaches the end of the year.
After reaching a peak price in October, Bitcoin has faced many difficulties from the market. According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin has recorded two consecutive months of decline.
In October, Bitcoin fell 3.69%, followed by a sharper decline of 17.67% in November. As of this time of the month, Bitcoin continues to drop 2.31%.
This cryptocurrency is struggling to regain a solid position above the 90,000 USD threshold. Currently, Bitcoin's trading price is lower than at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the demand for growth is weakening, inflows into spot ETFs are slowing, and professional investors selling off are increasing the downside risk for Bitcoin.
Selling pressure continues to appear in recent sessions, with Bitcoin dropping another 1.8% in the past 24 hours. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at 87,183 USD.
Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, shared with BeInCrypto that Bitcoin is still “stuck in an accumulation trend and fluctuating within a narrow range.” The complex macroeconomic situation makes it difficult for Bitcoin to regain upward momentum while still under 90,000 USD, as liquidity conditions are tightening and investor risk appetite is decreasing.
He also mentioned that the buying side has been trying to hold the support level at 85,000 USD. However, they have not been able to overcome strong selling pressure around the opening price of the year at 93,000 USD.
Market option data also somewhat reflects the tug-of-war state between market participants. Put options are concentrated at 85,000 USD, while call options are allocated in the range of 100,000 – 120,000 USD.
According to Mr. Youssef, the upcoming expiry of option contracts, information related to the risk of the U.S. government shutting down, and the move to inject 6.8 billion USD in liquidity from the Fed could cause significant price volatility in the short term. However, a clear market trend has not yet been established.
“Until Bitcoin actually breaks above the resistance around 93,000 USD or loses structural support at 85,000 USD, the price of BTC is likely to continue to move sideways and fluctuate significantly until the end of the year,” he commented.
This leader also analyzed that, although the price of Bitcoin has dropped more than 30% from the October peak, the number of spot Bitcoin ETFs held by U.S. institutions has only decreased by less than 5%. This indicates that large institutional investors are still maintaining their positions despite the market's deep correction.
He also revealed that the selling pressure primarily comes from retail investors, especially those using leverage and short-term investments. Mr. Youssef emphasized that the 85,000 USD level is a crucial price zone to watch as 2025 comes to an end.
If this threshold is breached, the risk of a deeper adjustment to the demand zone of 73,000 USD will increase significantly.
“If this support is broken, institutional investors will have to reconsider as the price approaches the cost zone of around 80,000 USD. To regain upward momentum, the market needs to recover above the 94,000 USD range to aim for previous peak levels,” Mr. Youssef predicted.
Bitcoin's outlook for 2026
In another development, Farzam Ehsani, CEO of VALR, stated that the last days of the year have become the most challenging period for the cryptocurrency market in recent years. He pointed out the unfavorable seasonal factors, the market being continuously overbought, and the wave of investors shifting to safer channels, particularly U.S. government bonds.
Mr. Ehsani also mentioned that market liquidity remains constrained, while large institutions are choosing a “wait-and-see” strategy, prioritizing capital preservation.
In addition, Ehsani assessed that this correction has clearly shown the fragility of the market and the psychological factors that easily lead to sell-offs. According to him, there are only two reasonable explanations for this phenomenon.
One possibility is that there may be one or more large investors such as funds, banks, or even countries preparing to buy large amounts.
“If that is the case, this downtrend is only temporary and the price is likely to recover after a short-term adjustment.”
Another possibility is that the market has become saturated. The weakening USD due to rising U.S. public debt has decreased demand for investment in cryptocurrencies – which are high-risk assets.
“This trend is even more evident when the Fed's policy is maintained. If so, it may take more than a year for the cryptocurrency market to recover,” he added.
Mr. Ehsani also predicts that Bitcoin could reach a new historical high as early as the first half of 2026, with the potential for the price to rise back to the 100,000 – 120,000 USD range in the second quarter.
“A new record high could appear as early as the first half of 2026, with the price expected to return to the 100,000–120,000 USD range in the second quarter. History shows that the early months of the year are often not very dynamic: traders often have a wait-and-see mentality, while the market is always seeking growth momentum and new opportunities,” he commented.
The CEO of VALR emphasized that the determining factors for next year will be the level of institutional participation, regulatory policies in the U.S. and globally, along with the macroeconomic situation of the largest economies in the world.
