Brothers, Hongcai is here.
The SOL market is lifeless, but on-chain there was a stunning operation where someone staked all of their SOL worth 150 million USD! Is this the long-term belief of a diamond hand, or a helpless act of playing dead after being trapped? The answer will determine whether we feast or suffer tonight.
News
A mysterious address staked 1.17 million SOL 20 minutes ago, worth 148 million USD.
Staking means these coins won't be sold in the short term, reducing market selling pressure. But on the flip side: why did they choose to stake now instead of selling or holding back? It's very likely that even big players feel the short-term rise is hopeless, yet they are reluctant to take a loss, so they simply lock up and lay flat. Is this good for us? Not necessarily.
Technical analysis
4-hour chart, full of danger signals:
The price is stuck at the key level of 125, unable to go up or down. MACD has a death cross below water, green bars turning into red bars, and volume continues to shrink.
The pressure above 130 is strong, and 134 is extremely strong; the short-term support below 121 is crucial, and 116 is a strong support that must not be broken.
Sell orders are clearly heavier than buy orders, and the rebound is weak, typical of the frustrating downtrend phase.
Remember one thing: the longer the key level oscillates, once a direction is chosen, the force will be more intense.
My opinion
I think SOL is likely to kick downwards first tonight.
Although whale staking has reduced selling pressure, it does not change the short-term downtrend. The main force may use the positive news of staking to create a false rebound, attracting retail investors to take over before crashing the market.
If there is a slight rebound to the 127-130 range, it may quickly drop to 121;
Or it may directly break below 124 with a panic sell-off, accelerating the slide towards 121.
In a downtrend, any good news may be used to offload, especially this kind of passive lock-up good news.
How do players do it?
For those without positions: don’t rush to bottom fish, wait for the price to either break above 130 with volume or drop near 121 to show signs of halting before acting.
Those with positions need to stay clear-headed: if you are trapped, reduce positions during a rebound to the 127-130 area; if you are lightly positioned, place an order to buy around 121-116 for a light long.
The smartest move: enter in batches between 121 and 130, take profits when you earn, and you can still make some small money in a volatile market.
Many people are deeply trapped because they impulsively rush in when they see whales buying or staking. I will help you analyze the true intentions behind these behaviors every day in my analysis, just like I mentioned today that staking is a shield, not a horn. Follow me, and you won't be misled by the superficial excitement.
The moment that tests people the most in the crypto world is when news clashes with technicals. Do you believe the news now, or do you believe the market? Follow Hongcai, I not only give you answers but also teach you how to find answers yourself.
Some signals, if you understand them, are gold; if you don't, they are stones. Tonight, let's see if SOL makes a comeback or falls into the abyss. Remember, if you want to preserve your capital, you must be able to see the sun tomorrow. Only those who remain calm in panic can seize the next wave of surges. Follow Hongcai and participate in every attack from Hongcai! Hongcai will announce the specific entry times and real-time news in the chat room every day!#加密市场观察 $SOL
