Core event

  • The Bank of Japan is about to announce whether to continue raising interest rates, which could be the most critical decision in thirty years.

  • This is not ordinary news, but the eye of a global liquidity storm that will directly impact your crypto assets.

The market has reacted in advance

  • Bitcoin has fallen from 90,000 to below 85,000.

  • Wall Street warns: BTC may begin several weeks of selling, with a decline potentially exceeding 10%, looking down at 84500.

  • Historical data is alarming: After the last three interest rate hikes in Japan, Bitcoin's decline exceeded 20% within 1-2 months, with the highest drop nearing 32%.

Why can Tokyo hold Bitcoin?

  • The key is the 'Yen arbitrage trade': Institutions borrow cheap yen for the long term to buy high-yield assets like Bitcoin.

  • Once interest rates rise, the 'cost of borrowing' skyrockets, and institutions will frantically sell assets to repay debts in yen.

  • Bitcoin, due to its good liquidity and high volatility, often becomes the 'vanguard' that is sold off first.

The current market is more fragile

  • High leverage + whale movements: a large amount of BTC flowing into exchanges, miners shutting down, and hash rate declining.

  • 'Digital gold' narrative breaks down: gold remains stable, BTC plummets, and it has been viewed as a high-risk macro asset.

  • Global liquidity chaos: central bank policy divergences amplify uncertainty and volatility.

How will things go after tonight?

  • The market has priced in 'interest rate hikes'; the real key lies in the Bank of Japan's 'attitude' towards future tightening.

  • If signals of continued interest rate hikes are released → selling may just be starting.

  • If the attitude is mild → it may lead to a rebound after negative sentiment is exhausted.

Warning and Reflection

  • After Bitcoin was 'incorporated' by Wall Street ETFs, it has become deeply tied to traditional finance.

  • 'Decentralized' resistance remains fragile in the face of a macro tsunami.

  • The real future may lie in whether it is possible to build a 'value anchor' that does not rely on central banks using code.

Stabilizing is the only way to weather the storm.
@USDD - Decentralized USD #USDD以稳见信