🚨 JAPAN 2026: WILL THE BOJ CONTINUE TO RAISE RATES?

✅ WHAT IS TRUE:

✔️ A weak yen is a real concern for the Bank of Japan (BOJ).

✔️ Kazuo Ueda (governor of the BOJ) has publicly acknowledged that the depreciation of the yen may fuel future inflation.

✔️ Within the BOJ committee, there is real debate about whether to move faster with policy adjustments.

✔️ JPMorgan and other investment banks DO consider more rate hikes as a base/possible scenario for 2026.

✔️ Japan has already exited the ultra-loose regime: the era of negative rates is behind us. That is a structural change.

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❌ WHAT IS NOT A FACT (BUT IS SOLD AS SUCH):

❌ There is no official timeline of "two assured hikes."

❌ There is no confirmation from the BOJ on how many times or when they will raise rates.

❌ JPMorgan does not decide Japanese monetary policy: it is a projection, not an order.

❌ It is not confirmed that the BOJ will "defend the yen at all costs."

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🧠 MACRO REALITY (WITHOUT EMOTION):

📌 The BOJ is caught between:

• 🔻 Weak yen → imports inflation

• 🔺 Raising rates too quickly → may harm growth and debt

👉 That is why the moves will be gradual, cautious, and data-dependent, not aggressive like the Fed.

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⚠️ REAL IMPACT ON MARKETS:

📉 Rate hikes in Japan:

• Pressure carry trades

• Reduce global liquidity

• Are a headwind for risk assets and crypto

📈 It is not bullish.

📉 It is restrictive globally, even if slow.

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🧨 UNFILTERED CONCLUSION:

✔️ It is true that JPMorgan expects more hikes.

✔️ It is true that the BOJ is concerned about the yen.

❌ It is not true that it has already been decided how many hikes there will be in 2026.

This is NOT explosive news,

it is a developing macro trend.

💥 Japan is not going to crash the market tomorrow,

but it could be the silent brake of the next global cycle.