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On July 18, Citrini analyst Jukan posted that a recent market analysis suggests that the recent pullback in memory chip stocks is driven not only by deleveraging factors, but also by the market beginning to price in expectations for a supply expansion in 2028 ahead of time. Although the industry generally expects tight supply-and-demand conditions for high-end memory such as HBM to persist until 2027, research institutions and sell-side analysts broadly believe that as manufacturers including Samsung Electronics and SK hynix expand production at large scale, the supply-demand gap is likely to start easing in 2028.

Traditional experience suggests that memory stocks typically top about two quarters before memory prices do, but this analysis argues that the market may not be limited to this rule—it may reflect expectations of increased future supply for a longer period in advance.

However, all pessimistic expectations are built on the same assumption—that new capacity will be concentrated in release in 2028, leading to another sharp drop in memory prices. Looking back at history, every major price plunge in the memory industry since the 1980s has been largely caused by rapid expansion of supply rather than a decline in demand. During the eras of PCs, smartphones, and cloud computing, demand has actually continued to grow.

This AI cycle may be fundamentally different from previous ones: AI applications have higher price elasticity for compute and storage demand. When prices fall, the growth rate of demand may exceed the negative impact caused by the price drop, thereby weakening the damage of the traditional memory cycle.

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🔊Mid-term Driven Logic

1. Macroeconomy (decisive factor)

🔊Crypto market highly tied to US dollar liquidity:

💥Inflation easing → markets bet that the Fed will stop hiking rates, benefiting risk assets;
💥But if inflation rebounds repeatedly and rate cuts are delayed, the market will face renewed pressure;
💥Geopolitical conflicts can temporarily suppress global risk appetite, leading to sudden selloffs.

2. Global regulatory environment

💥The EU’s MiCAR is officially implemented, ushering in an era of compliance-based regulation. Crypto-related businesses within the region will be standardized, squeezing out the survival space for unregulated “wild” platforms;
💥US spot ETF fund flows fluctuate repeatedly, and institutions remain relatively cautious;
💥In China, strict regulation remains consistent: trading and exchanging virtual currencies are prohibited, RWA tokenization for speculative trading is banned, and disguised “domestic crypto trading” channels are blocked.

3. Industry track heat

💥RWA (real-world asset tokenization), Layer2, and the Ethereum ecosystem narrative still generate topics, but most of it remains at the conceptual stage. Large-scale, profitable real-world use cases have not yet emerged, making it difficult for them to independently drive the broader market into a sustained bull cycle.

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BlockBeats message, July 18: Strategy founder Michael Saylor posted that this kind of corporate structure enables people to collaborate around a shared mission within a legal framework, and to carry out operations with greater efficiency, transparency, trust, scale, resilience, and sustainability.

If Bitcoin is to become a global monetary network, then it is not only necessary but also an inevitable and welcome development trend for businesses to adopt it.

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Musk belongs to the “Builder” personality type. The core trait of this type is an obsession with turning grand visions into reality, driven by an inner mission rather than money or comfort. In the more widely known MBTI (Myers-Briggs Type Indicator) framework, there is debate over Musk’s personality type. Common claims include: INTJ (Architect): dubbed the “born boss saint,” characterized by independence, rationality, strong goal orientation, and strategic thinking. Supporters argue that Musk sets grand goals, emphasizes planning, and is logically rigorous—matching INTJ traits. INTP (Logician): “a creative inventor,” with a strong desire for knowledge, adept at logical analysis and problem-solving. Some believe Musk is introverted, enjoys breaking problems down, and pursues first-principles thinking—fitting INTP traits. ENTP (Debater): characterized by intelligence and curiosity, and is described as a “visionary.” He is good at exploring possibilities and making cross-domain associations. Those who oppose the INTJ/INTP view believe that Musk’s psychological energy is extroverted; he continuously launches new projects and enjoys interacting with the public, which fits ENTP traits. It’s important to note that personality type theories (such as Ray Dalio’s model or MBTI) are simplified tools used to help understand behavioral tendencies, and they cannot fully define a person. Musk’s behavior also shows complexity—for example, at work he may be highly organized (similar to a J-type), but in life he can be more spontaneous (similar to a P-type).
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