Interest rate cut dreams shattered, the illusion of liquidity is collapsing

CME data mutation, the probability of a rate cut in January plummeted to 19.9%, while the probability of no change in March surprisingly reached 44.7%. The market's previous wild bet on 'spring easing' has been shattered by the cold numbers from the Federal Reserve.

What you thought was good news may be turning into a trap

Last week, there was still a 31% expectation for a rate cut, but now it's nearly halved. This is not just a fluctuation in data; it is the Federal Reserve's precise 'strangulation' of market sentiment. Too many people leveraged their positions betting on easing, and now the reality of longer-lasting interest rates may trigger a wave of liquidations. The frenzy after the Bitcoin ETF approval may just be the last hurrah before the liquidity turning point.

Reverse thinking: What is the Federal Reserve afraid of?

Is inflation really controllable? Or is the economy hotter than the data suggests? Once the expectations for a rate cut completely collapse, highly leveraged crypto bulls will become the first wave of fuel. Especially the two FOMC meetings in January and March 2024 will be key points for both bulls and bears — the more consistent the expectations, the more brutal the reversal.

Player action guide

Reduce leverage, stay alive: Avoid heavily betting on direction before the interest rate decision, and be especially cautious with high-leverage contracts.

Monitor Bitcoin spot ETF capital flow: If U.S. stock market liquidity tightens and ETF subscriptions weaken, it will directly transmit to the crypto market.

Hold cash, wait for panic sell-offs: When the market panics and drops due to the 'failure of rate cuts', it is the right time to gradually buy high-quality assets.

Remember: The Federal Reserve never saves the market; it only punctures bubbles. During high interest rate plateaus, cash is your best ammunition. #美联储降息周期 $BTC