Numbers can be deceiving, especially that win rate that makes you feel good.
As a female analyst who has been in the cryptocurrency market for many years, I have seen too many traders obsessed with win rates. They get entangled every day in 'did I get this right or wrong', just like elementary school students worrying about scores after an exam.
I remember when I first started in the industry, it was the same. At that time, I was pleased with my 70% win rate, but I found my account balance continuously shrinking. A seasoned trader friend of mine had only a 40% win rate, yet their assets steadily grew. This made me completely wake up: trading is not an exam, the passing line of 60 points does not apply here.
The win rate is just a vanity metric.
We must admit that the psychological satisfaction from a high win rate is immense. Every time we see ourselves 'judging correctly', dopamine is released. This pleasure makes us easily addicted to improving win rates while neglecting what is truly important.
But the data does not lie: a study in 2025 showed that even strategies with a win rate of 73% can have limited profitability due to poor risk management. Conversely, some strategies with only a 40% win rate can achieve stable returns due to asymmetric profit structures (average profit is 5-6 times the average loss).
It's like a coin toss game. If you earn 1 yuan for each correct guess but lose 5 yuan for each wrong guess, even with an 80% guessing rate, you will inevitably lose in the long run. The cruelty of trading lies here — you don't have to be correct every time, just need to earn enough when you are right.
The profit-loss ratio is the hidden key.
I often tell my students not to ask me 'Is this judgment correct?', but rather to ask 'If I am right, how much can I earn, and if I am wrong, how much will I lose?'.
The profit-loss ratio (average profit/average loss) is the key to long-term profitability. Suppose you set a 20% take profit and a 10% stop loss for each trade, with a profit-loss ratio of 2:1; even with a win rate of only 33%, the account can achieve break-even.
The strategy choices under three typical market conditions also confirm this point:
In trend trading, the win rate is high but the profit-loss ratio is limited (usually 1:1 to 2:1); in sideways markets, the win rate and profit-loss ratio need to be balanced; while in reversal trading (like bottom fishing), although the win rate is low, a high profit-loss ratio may be obtained.
Truly profitable traders often take big bets in the third scenario, capturing excess returns from relatively few successful trades.
Risk management and capital efficiency are often overlooked.
Data from 2025 shows that nearly 80% of retail cryptocurrency traders lose money in their first year, while only 10-15% can achieve sustained profitability. The core difference is that novices often take on 10% risk or more per trade, while experienced traders limit their risk to 1%-2%.
I have a rule: the risk of any single trade must not exceed 2% of total capital. This means that even after ten consecutive losses, I can still retain 80% of my capital to continue fighting.
The power of compound interest should not be overlooked. An algorithmic trading strategy achieved a 2860% return over two years, relying not on a high win rate (only 66.53%), but on profit reinvestment and the effects of compounding. This is the magic of capital efficiency — making money work for you continuously rather than starting over each time.
Emotions are the biggest trap.
As a female trader, I pay special attention to the impact of emotions on trading. A study in 2025 on the psychology of cryptocurrency trading found that FOMO (fear of missing out) and overconfidence can lead traders to overtrade, ignore stop losses, and chase high-risk opportunities.
When the market is volatile, female traders often show better patience and discipline. This may be one reason why more and more women are succeeding in the field of cryptocurrency.
In my current trading journal, the part assessing emotional control for each trade is more important than the part analyzing technical indicators. Remember: it is normal to make a good trade and lose money, just as it is normal to make a bad trade and profit. Single results are full of randomness; what matters is to persist in a system with a positive expected value over the long term.
My practical insights.
After years of experience, I have formed my own trading principles:
Focus on response rather than prediction. No longer fixated on the accuracy of market predictions, but instead concentrate on how to adjust positions based on market changes.
Focus on the net asset value curve rather than the win rate. If the curve is steadily rising, there is no need to worry even if the win rate is low; conversely, if it is not, the strategy needs to be reassessed.
Opportunities are plentiful, but the capital is only once. Black swan events will always occur; the only thing that protects you is strict risk management.
In a highly volatile market like cryptocurrency, surviving is more important than short-term profits. This means you must avoid the risk of liquidation and keep enough chips to wait for real opportunities to arise.
Successful trading is not about pursuing the highest win rate, but about building a system with a positive expected value and executing it long-term with strict discipline.
The next time you feel proud of your high win rate, you might ask yourself a question: What is my profit-loss ratio? Is risk control in place? How is capital efficiency?
Only by freeing yourself from the obsession with win rates and considering multiple dimensions of trading can you go further in this market.
Remember, the market will never reward those who are just 'often correct', but will reward those rational traders who earn enough when right and lose as little as possible when wrong.
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