This is a convenient point of focus, but it simplifies the real picture.
The key mistake is to attribute causal power to the halving. In reality, it is merely an element of a pre-known emission mechanism. Its parameters are transparent, predictable, and have long been embedded in the market model.
Participants prepare for such events long before they occur. Capital is gradually redistributed, expectations are formed in advance, and the very fact of the halving does not carry new information. As a result, the price reacts not to the event but to the difference between expectations and reality. When expectations are overly high, the effect can be opposite to what was anticipated.
Halving is not a trigger for movement but part of the overall context. The mistake begins where the context is taken as the cause.
