11 favorable policies released! Nearly 3,500 stocks are in the green. Has the main upward wave of A-shares really arrived?

In today's morning session, although the central bank did not cut interest rates, it introduced a one-time credit repair policy; at the same time, the six major banks have gradually phased out five-year large-denomination time deposits, and many banks have shelved medium- to long-term deposit products. Together with other positive factors, this has jointly boosted A-shares to open higher and rise further, with nearly 3,500 stocks in the green.

However, it is still too early to assert that the main upward wave has started. The core judgment basis is as follows:

1. The strength of the rise after the high opening in the morning session is insufficient, and the subsequent trend shows fatigue, lacking the momentum for sustained upward movement.

2. The moving average divergence rate is at a high level and the trend is horizontal, indicating a strong centripetal consolidation demand in the market.

3. In the short term, the market is likely to maintain a volatile pattern, and Thursday may become an important turning point, with the index still having the possibility of further decline.

4. From a long-term perspective, I still have confidence in A-shares. The spring market is worth looking forward to, but based on historical trends, the index is more likely to start rising after sufficient volatility and consolidation.