The big one is coming! Pay attention! The Federal Reserve is pouring cold water, can the Bitcoin halving cycle break through the trend? Short-term market funding costs are rising, and investors are more inclined to conservative operations. Assets like $BTC and $ETH are unlikely to see significant increases, especially with the risk of high leverage trading surging. Traders using 40x leverage may quickly face liquidation due to price fluctuations. Ordinary investors should avoid chasing highs or rushing to bottom-fish and should first stabilize risks.
But in the long run, cryptocurrency trends do not solely depend on Federal Reserve policies but are driven by their core logic. For example, Bitcoin's halving in April next year will reduce new coin output, which may push prices higher; the capital flow of Bitcoin spot ETFs can directly reflect traditional institutions' attitudes. Continuous net inflows can support the market, while net outflows may trigger declines. Additionally, in a high-interest-rate environment, projects with actual users, stable income, and technical strength are more resilient, while projects purely based on speculation and without income may be eliminated.
In terms of specific operations, Bitcoin is currently in a narrow fluctuation range of 88000-89500 in the four-hour cycle, with strong resistance at 91000-92000, which requires a volume breakout to open upward space; the strong support zone is at 86000-87000, and breaking below may trigger a chain decline. Holders can take 88000 as the dividing line, and reduce positions if it breaks below; those who want to trade can try going long with light positions in the support area or try going short in the resistance area, but must strictly set stop-losses. The key to risk control is managing leverage, which is safer below 3-5 times; high leverage can easily lead to total losses in a volatile market.
The Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates suppresses the market in the short term, but the long-term trend of cryptocurrencies is determined by their own rules and the fundamentals of the projects. Investors should balance short-term risks with long-term opportunities: use low leverage for range trading in the short term to avoid blind operations; focus on core factors such as Bitcoin halving, #ETF资金 flow, and choose strong projects for layout in the medium to long term. Before the macro environment improves significantly, remain cautious, use time to exchange for space, and ultimately achieve controllable risks and returns.
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