Everything is rising, the world is collectively hesitating

Gold, US stock futures, and crude oil opened higher on Monday—US stocks performed well last Friday, easing the tense atmosphere in the market.

But one word to note: "light trading." We are about to enter holiday mode, and many funds have already started to "pack up," so the rise at this time may be exaggerated, but its value is not high.

· First, last week the S&P 500 index stood above 6800 points, the Nasdaq index broke the 50-day moving average, and Bitcoin firmly stood above $85000—so one theme starting this Monday will be "betting on a year-end rebound" (not "optimistic about next year"). From this perspective, the path of least resistance this week is "upward," but the only risk is that the consensus will become increasingly aligned. Once over-discussed, there will be two outcomes: early overextension, or a faster but shorter-lived rise.

· Second, for investors, it is still an environment full of expectations because the market continues to bet that the Federal Reserve will have two rate cuts next year (reasonable, not aggressive), and people will continue to bet with hope. The market has no direction, it is just betting on probabilities.

· Third, the global market is still in a state of "hedging coexistence," where the stock market rises, the dollar does not fall, gold is not weak, and bond yields are high—the market does not believe in a single narrative. This is not a bull market rise, but more like a collective hesitation.

Fourth, the real "watershed" for the market is not during the holidays, but in January—not a point, but a period of "repricing."

China: If the policy signals in January are not clear enough, patient funds will continue to wait and see.

The United States: Once "no rate cut in January" becomes a consensus, valuations will need to be re-discounted.

This is not a rebound that can be pursued with ease, but also an environment that is "not suitable for simple shorting." The real choice will be left until January. $BTC $ETH $BNB #美国非农数据超预期 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 #巨鲸动向