📉 macro — the new dominant force
With the Iran war over, macro became the new enemy of $BTC in June. Three data points defined the month 👇
🌡️ CPI (May): 4.2% YoY — highest in 3 years, in line but accelerating
🏭 PPI (May): 6.5% YoY — highest since Nov 2022, broke all relief
📈 PCE (May): in line — still well above 2% Fed target
📈 GDP: strong — economy not weak enough to force Fed cuts
💵 DXY: gaining strength — dollar up, pressure on all risk assets
🚨 Rate HIKE probability July: 36% — conversation shifted from cuts to hikes
The economic paradox of June — strong GDP with sticky inflation is the worst possible combination for $BTC. The Fed has no reason to cut and every reason to hike. 9 out of 18 Fed members now believe 2% inflation won't be reached until 2028. The macro headwind is structural, not temporary. 🧠
#dyor #PCE #cpi #GDP
With the Iran war over, macro became the new enemy of $BTC in June. Three data points defined the month 👇
🌡️ CPI (May): 4.2% YoY — highest in 3 years, in line but accelerating
🏭 PPI (May): 6.5% YoY — highest since Nov 2022, broke all relief
📈 PCE (May): in line — still well above 2% Fed target
📈 GDP: strong — economy not weak enough to force Fed cuts
💵 DXY: gaining strength — dollar up, pressure on all risk assets
🚨 Rate HIKE probability July: 36% — conversation shifted from cuts to hikes
The economic paradox of June — strong GDP with sticky inflation is the worst possible combination for $BTC. The Fed has no reason to cut and every reason to hike. 9 out of 18 Fed members now believe 2% inflation won't be reached until 2028. The macro headwind is structural, not temporary. 🧠
#dyor #PCE #cpi #GDP