$POL sits near its cycle low

Around $010 with a market cap close to $1B

At the same time prediction markets are gaining attention

Volumes are rising

Polymarket is becoming a reference point

The question appears simple

Can POL return to $1

Can Polygon reach a $10B valuation again

This is not a price call

This is a structural check

The prediction market narrative

Prediction markets are becoming visible again

Polymarket usage is growing

Event driven speculation is pulling users onchain

USDC settlement is simple

Liquidity is improving during major news cycles

This has created a new narrative

Prediction markets as a core crypto primitive

But narrative and value capture are not the same thing

Where Polygon fits

Polygon provides infrastructure

Not ownership of outcomes

Polymarket runs on Polygon

But fees are low

Most activity is USDC based

Token demand does not automatically rise with volume

Users can interact without touching POL directly

That limits reflexivity

The price contradiction

POL is near all time lows

Despite

• A live network

• Active applications

• High visibility platforms like Polymarket

Reasons often cited

• High circulating supply

• Limited fee capture

• No clear staking demand driver

• Polygon is already widely known

This is not a discovery asset

Narratives have less impact on mature infrastructure tokens

What would need to change

For $1 or a $10B market cap to be realistic

Several shifts would be required

• Prediction markets become a dominant onchain category

• Polygon captures fees or staking demand directly

• POL becomes unavoidable for usage not optional

• Broader market risk appetite expands

Without this

Hype alone does not translate into price

The open question

If prediction markets are the new meta

Who captures the value

The application

The stablecoin

Or the base layer

And if Polygon is essential infrastructure

Why does the token remain disconnected from that growth