Three consecutive daily gains support the rebound! Can A-shares continue to rise? Weekly trend change + daily line consolidation, controlling the rhythm is key

The new week’s行情is about to start. From the weekly perspective (Figure 1), the market is currently still in a critical window for directional choice. This week, the 5-week and 10-week moving averages will gradually flatten, while the 20-week moving average maintains an upward trend. The three moving averages are compressed to the extreme and tend to converge, indicating that the market is brewing a weekly level trend change. The core anchor point for the subsequent trend is whether it can break through and stabilize at 3936 points, and simultaneously stand above the 10-week moving average—if achieved, it will push the moving average combination to turn upward, opening up mid-term upward space; conversely, if it cannot break through for a long time, the 10-week moving average will form resistance, and the support strength of the 20-week moving average will also weaken.

Looking at the daily level, the short-term moving averages are also entangled and have not provided a clear direction. The previous expectation of the 20-day moving average flattening in the second half of the week has created favorable conditions for the bulls to accumulate strength. The rebound starting from 3815 points has also verified this point, but the rebound strength is slightly insufficient: a significant bullish candlestick with volume has not appeared, indicating that the current long and short forces are relatively balanced, and there is no decisive advantage. The market is still operating within the central box range of 3815 points - 3936 points, so the upward movement starting from 3815 points is temporarily defined as a rebound for safety.

So, has this round of rebound ended? From a structural perspective, as long as the daily 5-day moving average does not break down, the market still has the opportunity to continue approaching the upper track of the central range at 3936 points; at the intraday level, we need to closely monitor the key point at 3971 points. If this point does not break, the short-term operating rhythm will belong to the normal range. The subsequent specific direction still needs to be combined with the market volume and the breakthrough of key points, tracking and confirming step by step.

In terms of sectors, the large consumer sector is repeatedly active, and the retail track has shown a clear trend, with obvious signs of capital involvement; commercial aerospace and other themes also have activity. It should be noted that strong sectors should not be chased high; the core is to grasp the rotation rhythm— even if the sector experiences a pullback, it can be seen as a low-entry opportunity, focusing on tracking the repeated active opportunities of strong stocks within the sector.

Summary

1. The weekly dimension has entered a trend change cycle, and the directional choice is imminent. 3936 points and the 10-week moving average are key breakout points;

2. The rebound starting from 3815 points on the daily line has not yet confirmed an end, and the trend is moving towards the upper track of the central range. As long as the 5-day line or 3871 points is not lost, there is no need to worry excessively about the short-term trend;

3. In terms of operation, it is necessary to control the rhythm. After three consecutive daily gains, be vigilant against short-term profit-taking pressure. Do not chase high at emotional peaks, and take the opportunity to buy low during the pullback; the current market direction is unclear, and individual stocks should still be the main focus, while also managing positions well.