Recent reports about the alleged sales of the Trump Gold Card have been questioned amid low estimates in the prediction markets. According to a report released on December 20, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that sales of the Trump Gold Card had reached about $950 million, describing this performance as "very strong." However, the prediction platform Polymarket classified these claims as "false."
Despite the optimistic statements, the prediction market still assigns a high chance (around 87%) that no card will be sold by the end of the year.
Polymarket
The reason for this skepticism is that, according to Polymarket, only numbers that are explicitly confirmed by final approvals and effectively completed payments are considered valid for probability calculations. Trump's statements and those of other spokespersons about amounts involved in sales do not meet this criterion, as there is no official confirmation of completed payments.
The Trump Gold Card is an immigration program through investment announced by the Trump administration, which proposes granting residency in the United States upon payment of a high fee (estimated at $5 million per card).
