The four-year cycle of BTC will not suddenly disappear; it will gradually become blurred.

According to the four-year cycle, the peak of BTC should be at the end of 2025, and the bear bottom should be at the end of 2026.

However, the peak of BTC is in October 2025, and the bear market may not necessarily be at the end of 2026.

The current market trend is no longer dominated by miners or on-chain activities. Even the influence of exchanges has significantly weakened.

It's not that BTC has to follow the macro cycle after the ETF listing.

BTC rising from 3000 to 20000 is sufficient with internal funds.

BTC rising from 20000 to 70000 is sufficient with institutional funds.

But for BTC to rise from 70000 to 120000, or even higher, along with the simultaneous inflation of Altcoins, the market cap is getting larger, and the dependence on macro liquidity will naturally become stronger.

In the first half of 2026, it is highly likely that there will be at least one interest rate cut, as U.S. employment and consumption weaken, and certain states are already in recession (Besen's original words).

In the second half of 2026, the new Federal Reserve Chairman will take office, and it is speculated that there will be at least two interest rate cuts.

Note that we are not counting the number of rate cuts, but rather that each rate cut will accelerate the release of liquidity.

Because we cannot accurately predict the monetary easing pace of the Federal Reserve in 2026, and the expectation impact of the four-year cycle is still relatively strong. 2026 will definitely not align with a bullish market environment.

The macro environment in 2026 is distinctly different from the interest rate hike environments of 2018 and 2022, and it does not conform to a major bear market environment.