On December 20, the year-end red envelope market may start next week. Japan raised interest rates as expected, and the market generally predicts that the next interest rate hike will be in June next year. The Federal Reserve's meetings will be in January and March next year, with a high probability of a rate cut again in March. Before April next year, the external situation will tend to ease.

From a temporal perspective, from January to April next year, there will be a year-end red envelope market. According to past market trends, every December, funds tend to be cautious, and the probability of a decline is high. A decline is a good thing, reserving space for next year's main upward wave.

The first round of the bull market's main upward wave is from early April to the end of August. The rise lasted for four months, with a cumulative increase of 848 points and a maximum increase of 27.8%. From August to December, it fluctuated sideways for four months. The Shanghai Composite Index formed a double bottom, with effective support at 3815 points. Every significant decline is a bull market's retracement. A new round of main upward waves could occur at any time.

In summary, regardless of whether the Shanghai Composite Index rises or consolidates, each four-month period is a cycle. From January to April next year, the year-end red envelope market will begin, leading to a new round of main upward waves. The increase will not be lower than the April market, with a cumulative increase of about 30%.

Still, the same message: in a bull market, we must be firmly bullish, and the year-end red envelope market will definitely happen. The downward trend has reversed, and a significant rise could happen at any time; holding steady is the safest choice. Wishing everyone good luck next week!