Overall forecast:
▪️2026 will mark the beginning of a full-fledged institutional era for the crypto market.
▪️An increase in valuations of digital assets and the completion of the 'four-year cycle' is expected.
▪️BTC is capable of renewing its ATH in the first half of 2026.
Macroeconomics and money:
▪️The growth of public debt and fiscal risks are increasing demand for alternative means of saving.
▪️BTC and ETH are considered scarce digital monetary assets.
▪️20 million BTC will be mined in March 2026, reinforcing the narrative of scarcity.
▪️Private coins like Zcash (ZEC) may benefit from currency risks.
Regulation:
▪️In 2026, the passage of a bipartisan U.S. law on the market structure of the crypto industry (CLARITY) is expected.
▪️Regulatory clarity will accelerate the influx of institutional capital.
▪️ There will be an opportunity for regulated on-chain asset issuance for companies.
▪️The failure of the legislative process is seen as a key risk for the market.
Institutional capital and ETP:
▪ From 2024, spot crypto-ETPs attracted ~ $87 billion in net inflows.
▪️Less than 0.5% of advised capital in the U.S. has been invested in cryptocurrency so far.
▪️In 2026, a gradual but sustained inflow of institutional funds is expected.
▪Price moves more smoothly compared to past cycles due to demand characteristics.
Stablecoins:
▪️After the passage of the GENIUS law, stablecoins are moving into mass payments, derivatives, and corporate balances.
▪️The growth of stablecoin volumes supports underlying blockchains and DeFi infrastructure.
▪️Stablecoins are becoming an alternative to card payments and a tool for prediction markets.
Tokenization:
▪Tokenization of assets is at a turning point.
▪️ The share of tokenized stocks and bonds is still minimal, but the growth potential is estimated at ~1000x by 2030.
▪️Key beneficiaries: Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), BNB Chain (BNB), and infrastructure like Chainlink (LINK).
Privacy:
▪️Mass adoption of blockchain requires privacy at the level of traditional finance.
▪️Interest in Zcash (ZEC), Aztec (AZTEC), Railgun (RAIL), and confidential transactions on Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) is growing.
▪️Privacy will be combined with new identification and compliance tools.
AI and blockchain:
▪️The centralization of AI will create demand for decentralized blockchain solutions.
▪️An ‘agent economy’ will emerge with on-chain identity, payments, and intellectual property.
▪️Beneficiaries: Bittensor (TAO), World (WLD), Near Protocol (NEAR), Story Protocol (IP), and payment infrastructure.
DeFi:
▪️DeFi is accelerating, with lending as a key driver.
▪️Segment leaders: Aave (AAVE), Morpho (MORPHO), Maple (MPL).
DEX derivatives can already be compared in volume to CEX.
▪️DeFi is increasingly integrating with traditional fintech platforms.
Next-generation infrastructure:
▪️Mass adoption will require faster and cheaper blockchains.
▪️Potential leaders: Sui (SUI), Monad (MON), MegaETH (MEGA), Near Protocol (NEAR).
▪️These networks are focused on AI payments, on-chain trading, and real-time applications.
Fundamental metrics:
▪Transaction fees are seen as a key revenue analogue.
▪️Institutional investors will focus on networks and applications with sustainable cash flows.
▪️Leaders by commission: TRX, SOL, ETH, BNB, as well as individual applications.
Staking:
▪️In 2025, staking received regulatory approval in the U.S.
▪️In 2026, staking will become the standard form of holding PoS assets.
▪️Beneficiaries: Lido (LDO) and Jito (JTO).
▪️The growth in the share of staked tokens may reduce reward profitability.
What will not be a market driver:
▪️Quantum computers will not affect valuations in 2026.
▪️Digital Asset Treasuries will not become a major source of demand or market pressure.
