🔮 Prediction Markets

The New Macro Signal

Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are emerging as leading indicators for macroeconomic trends, often reacting faster than traditional Fed models.

📊 By the numbers:

▪️ Polymarket forecasts reach 90–95% accuracy

▪️ Outperform traditional weather and sports betting models (Brier score)

Hedge funds are taking note — using these platforms to gauge real-time market consensus and anticipate macro shifts.

Collective intelligence is becoming a powerful tool for forecasting the economy.