Family, who understands! Recently, it seems that the big whales in the crypto circle have collectively 'checked out' as if they had an agreement. Many retail investors looked at the K-line and followed the trend to sell, fearing they would be cut if they were a step late. But as someone who has been in this circle for eight years, I have to say this from the bottom of my heart: the departure of whales itself is not scary; what is scary is that before they leave, they set up 'time bombs' in the market with high leverage. Once this thing explodes, retail investors who follow the trend are likely to become 'cannon fodder' in the wave of liquidations!
First, let’s clarify a core logic: why does the market panic easily when whales sell? It’s not because their holdings can directly crash the market; rather, many whales’ holdings are not 'self-owned funds running naked' at all, but are 'bubble positions' built up through revolving loans and leverage. Simply put, they use 1 dollar of their own capital to borrow 4 dollars or even more to buy coins, magnifying their positions several times. When they earn, they make a fortune, but once the coin price drops a little, they may be forced to liquidate by the platform.
Here’s a real case for everyone; it's not made up, and it’s verifiable on-chain: there was a whale named 0xa339 who, due to the ETH price correction, was forced to dump over 30,000 ETH to avoid being liquidated, directly losing 40 million dollars! And this time, this guy sold 10,000 ETH to 'take profit.' It's clear to anyone with a keen eye that this isn't just about securing profits; it’s about fearing significant price fluctuations that their leveraged position can't handle, hence the preemptive reduction of leverage for self-preservation.
Newbie retail investors might ask: What does a whale's liquidation have to do with me? Let me tell you, it matters a lot! Historical data does not lie; the high-leverage liquidation events of whales have always been the 'amplifier' of market fluctuations. There was a whale before who, unable to withstand losses on their position, was forced to sell more than 18,000 ETH, which was worth over 56 million dollars at the time. Such large-scale sell-offs not only directly drive down the coin price but, more critically, trigger stop-loss orders from other traders in the market, creating a vicious cycle of 'chain liquidations': you sell, I sell, everyone sells, and in the end, the coin price drops like a roller coaster. Those without leverage might only incur minor losses, while those with leverage get wiped out.
Let me show you a key signal in the current market, which I have always warned my friends about: In the derivatives market now, the premiums on ETH put options have already surpassed those on call options. What does this indicate? It indicates that most smart money is on the defensive, worrying about future price corrections. At this time, if retail investors still stubbornly add leverage and chase in, I can only say it’s purely 'jumping into the fire pit.' You think you can buy the dip and make a quick profit, but little do you know that once the price turns downward, the first to be liquidated will be those high-leverage retail positions. After all, the platform's liquidation always prioritizes 'small retail first, then whales.' Those with smaller capital and weaker risk resistance will be the first to get cut.
As an analyst who has seen countless retail investors lose everything due to high leverage, my personal opinion has always been clear: retail investors should not touch leverage in crypto! Do not touch leverage! Do not touch leverage! Important things should be repeated three times! The money in your hands is your hard-earned money, not chips to gamble with the market. Participate rationally with your own funds, even if you earn a little less, at least you won't end up back at square one overnight.
Lastly, I want to share a heartfelt message: The crypto market has never lacked opportunities, but what’s missing is the patience to control one's hands and avoid traps. Whale movements can be referenced, but you absolutely must not blindly follow the trend. I will continue to track the on-chain changes in whale positions and market leverage data, providing everyone with a guide to avoid pitfalls. Have you encountered situations where you fell into traps by following whale operations? Or do you have any questions about the current market leverage risks? Feel free to chat with me in the comments section, and follow me@帝王说币 #巨鲸动向 $BTC .
