JPMorgan Chase reiterates conservative forecast: Stablecoin market cap unlikely to exceed one trillion dollars by 2028
In a recent analysis report, JPMorgan Chase reiterated that it expects the total market cap of stablecoins to not reach the trillion-dollar level by 2028, but rather to be between 500 billion and 600 billion dollars.
This forecast is more cautious compared to the optimistic expectations of Citibank at 1.9 trillion dollars and Standard Chartered at 2 trillion dollars. Its core logic is based on the growth momentum of stablecoins, the deep constraints of application scenarios, and competitive pressure from the traditional financial system.
The report analyzes that the current growth of stablecoins is mainly driven by trading activities within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. This year's market cap has grown by about 100 billion dollars to the current approximately 300 billion dollars, mainly attributed to the expansion of Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC).
Behind this is a surge in perpetual futures trading, an increase in the holdings of derivatives exchanges, and demand for stablecoins as "cash collateral" driven by activities like DeFi lending.
Although the application of stablecoins in the payment sector is becoming increasingly widespread, this will not linearly translate into a significant increase in market cap. The key reason is that the popularity of payments has increased the circulation speed of stablecoins;
For example, if stablecoins process 5% of global cross-border payments annually (approximately 10 trillion dollars), based on the current turnover rate of USDT on the Ethereum blockchain of about 50 times per year, only about 200 billion dollars in reserves would be needed to support this, without requiring corresponding trillion-level stock.
A greater challenge comes from the digital counterattack of the traditional financial system. On one hand, tokens like JPM Coin launched by JPMorgan Chase, backed by deposit insurance and regulatory-friendly attributes, provide compliant on-chain payment solutions, diverting institutional users' demand for stablecoins;
On the other hand, the advancement of global central bank digital currencies such as the digital euro and digital yuan, along with SWIFT's blockchain-based cross-border payment pilot, is building a regulated official digital payment channel, directly competing with private stablecoins in institutional and cross-border scenarios.
In summary, the growth of stablecoins is not only constrained by the overall market sentiment of the cryptocurrency market but also needs to seek balance under the dual pressure of improving payment efficiency (reducing stock demand) and the digitization of traditional finance (competing for market share). In the coming years, the stablecoin market is likely to show "accompanied growth" rather than disruptive expansion.
