奔跑财经-FinaceRun

Analyst: Bitcoin spot demand rebounds significantly, with total demand returning to positive territory

October 8 — CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost wrote that Bitcoin’s total demand has recently returned to positive territory, surpassing 14,000 BTC, with market buying activity showing a clear improvement.

Spot demand has improved the most. Although it remains negative at -17,000 BTC, this is a sharp narrowing from the low of -207,000 BTC on September 20.

Meanwhile, in contrast to the continued improvement in spot market demand, futures market demand has remained relatively stable in recent days, averaging around 32,000 BTC.

Darkfost noted that falling prices alongside recovering spot demand is a divergence that often indicates buying pressure is building. It is generally viewed as a positive signal that the market may be forming a bottom.

However, some community members believe that improving market demand is a positive start, but not a decisive turning point.

If spot demand remains positive over the coming weeks and prices stabilize, that would be a genuine signal of a trend reversal.

#比特币筑底信号

Standard Chartered expands digital asset custody services at its Singapore branch, covering cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and RWA assets

Oct. 8 — According to The Block, Standard Chartered’s Singapore branch plans to launch digital asset custody services for institutional investors, covering selected cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs).

The same custody services will also be launched in financial centers such as the UAE, Luxembourg, and Hong Kong. The Singapore launch will further strengthen its global digital asset custody network and expand the bank’s existing crypto custody operations.

At present, most custodians support only mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Newer asset classes, such as tokenized government bonds and stablecoins, face a relative shortage of compliant custody services. Standard Chartered’s expansion is aimed at addressing this gap.

The launch in Singapore is supported by the country’s regulatory framework. As early as 2023, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) brought digital asset custody under the regulatory framework for payment services licenses.

By entering the digital asset custody market now, Standard Chartered benefits from a clear compliance pathway and is doing so at a pivotal moment in Singapore’s policy push to become the Asia-Pacific’s digital asset hub.

For institutional investors, Standard Chartered’s status as a globally systemically important bank means its custody service can provide assets with a bank-grade risk management framework. Compared with non-bank custody providers, it also offers more comprehensive compliance safeguards, making it more attractive to institutional clients.

In sum, Standard Chartered’s addition of custody services for stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets further illustrates the broader trend of major traditional financial institutions accelerating their expansion into the digital asset ecosystem.

As institutional investors’ demand for compliant, diversified digital asset custody continues to rise, Standard Chartered’s Singapore launch meets a clear market need and demonstrates its strong long-term confidence in the development of the Asia-Pacific digital asset sector.

At the industry level, as banks around the world continue to step up their investment in crypto custody, they are not only providing compliant support for institutional capital to participate in digital asset markets, but also signaling that the traditional financial system and the digital asset sector have entered a phase of deeper, accelerated integration.

#数字资产托管业务

U.S. BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw combined net outflows of $648 million on Wednesday, led by BlackRock products

October 8 — According to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded total net outflows of $487 million yesterday, marking the second day of net outflows this week. No BTC ETF saw net inflows yesterday.

BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and ARK 21Shares’ ARKB led the outflows, with nearly $208 million (about 2,490 BTC), $105 million (about 1,260 BTC), and $102 million (about 1,220 BTC) in net outflows, respectively.

They were followed by Grayscale’s GBTC, Bitwise’s BITB, VanEck’s HODL, and Valkyrie’s BRRR, which recorded daily net outflows of $39.29 million (471.29 BTC), $27.59 million (330.95 BTC), $3.54 million (42.41 BTC), and $2.11 million (25.36 BTC), respectively.

As of now, spot Bitcoin ETFs have total net assets of $107.40 billion, equivalent to 6.41% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization, and cumulative net inflows of $57.33 billion.

On the same day, U.S. spot ETH ETFs recorded nearly $161 million in total net outflows, marking their seventh consecutive day of net outflows. Likewise, no ETH ETF saw net inflows yesterday.

BlackRock’s ETHA and Grayscale’s ETHE recorded the largest and second-largest net outflows yesterday, at $116 million (about 45,250 ETH) and $25.77 million (about 10,050 ETH), respectively.

They were followed by 21Shares’ TETH and Bitwise’s ETHW, with daily net outflows of $6.27 million (about 2,450 ETH) and $5.87 million (about 2,290 ETH), respectively.

VanEck’s ETHV, Invesco’s QETH, and Grayscale’s ETH recorded daily net outflows of $2.81 million (about 1,100 ETH), $2.04 million (796.89 ETH), and $1.96 million (764.26 ETH), respectively.

As of now, spot Ethereum ETFs have total net assets of $16.40 billion, equivalent to 5.22% of Ethereum’s total market capitalization, and cumulative net inflows of $13.39 billion.

As for flows in other crypto ETFs, NEAR and LTC ETFs recorded net inflows of $3.34 million and $480,000 yesterday, respectively, while ZEC and SOL ETFs saw net outflows of $8.49 million and $4.80 million, respectively.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Justin Drake warns: ECDSA could be cracked within months in the worst case, urges crypto industry to enter “defense mode”

October 8 — Cryptography researcher Justin Drake recently issued an urgent warning, calling on the blockchain industry to calmly plan for “bunker mode,” drawing widespread community attention.

The warning stems from recent breakthroughs in AI in the field of mathematics. Drake said that 722 new mathematical research results recently released by OpenAI show that breakthroughs in mathematics have arrived.

He believes that mathematical breakthroughs emerging in the coming weeks will be comparable in scale to the mathematical advances accumulated over the past several centuries—not merely those of the past few decades.

In addition, several mathematical conjectures long considered difficult to overturn, including the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture, have been disproven in succession, sounding an alarm about the security of cryptographic systems.

In his view, the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) has an intricate algebraic structure that could be exploited by advanced attacks, while hash functions are designed to weaken such algebraic structures and are relatively more secure.

He made the bold prediction that ECDSA could be cracked by classical algorithms even before the quantum computing “Q-Day”; in the worst case, it could be cracked within months. At that point, attackers would need only a large GPU cluster to derive private keys in about a week.

For holders with different asset sizes, Drake proposed a tiered defense strategy: large holders should move their assets to new addresses that have never signed a transaction and whose public keys are hidden behind hashes, and transfer any remaining funds after each signature;

Users holding fewer than 50 BTC can temporarily rely on the “Satoshi Shield” for protection. This mechanism applies to 20,000 early addresses, each holding 50 BTC;

Meanwhile, key signers such as oracles and Layer 2 security councils should consider rotating public keys after every signature or adopting hash-based signature schemes such as SPHINCS.

Drake also made a special appeal to major institutions such as Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether to use this opportunity to strengthen the security of their cold storage.

He also urged the market to stay calm and avoid panic-driven asset transfers, since hastily moving assets could do more harm than good, and the measure itself is simply a precaution.

Looking ahead, Drake advocates that the industry make a full transition to hash-based cryptography. Ethereum has already embraced this direction, and upgrading the entire crypto industry is now urgent.

#BTC算法签名

Fed September Meeting Minutes: Most Officials Support Another Rate Hike Before Year-End; Labor Market Risks Have Eased

October 8 — According to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 15–16, released by the Federal Reserve, most policymakers favored another rate hike before the end of the year.

Officials also said they would remain open-minded at every meeting, with the policy outlook depending entirely on economic data, its implications for the outlook, and the balance of risks.

At the meeting, the Committee voted unanimously, 12–0, to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023.

The minutes showed that nearly all participants assessed inflation risks as tilted to the upside, while labor market risks had eased and moved toward being broadly balanced.

Moreover, 16 of the 19 officials saw the possibility of at least one more 25-basis-point rate hike this year, while four expected two additional hikes. Chair Warsh again declined to submit his individual projections.

In its economic projections, the Committee raised its forecast for GDP growth in 2026 to 2.3% and for 2027 to 2.4%. It also raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 3.7% and its core inflation forecast to 3.4%, while lowering its unemployment rate projections for 2026–2027 to 4.1%.

Overall, these hawkish Fed meeting minutes add to uncertainty in global financial markets. Higher interest rates mean tighter market liquidity, which could weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin in the short term.

In addition, as AI infrastructure investment becomes a new driver of inflation, it is also putting the traditional monetary policy framework to the test. The Fed's ability to balance economic growth with inflation control will be key to determining the market's direction from here.

Finally, how many more times do you think the Fed will raise rates this year? What impact will the rate-hiking cycle have on Bitcoin's price? Share your thoughts in the comments!

#美联储9月会议纪要

Analysts Confirm Bitcoin Bull Market Signals: Key Metrics Trigger for the Fifth Time; ETF Inflows Could Become the Main Driving Force

On September 24, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the latest analysis indicates that the key signals for a Bitcoin bull market have been officially confirmed.

Previously, the analyst warned on July 11 that the bear market was nearing its end. Now, confirmation signals that momentum has flipped have also appeared, suggesting that the market structure has indeed undergone a substantive change.

The core of this signal is that the cost basis for short-term holders (STH) has re-crossed above the cost basis line for "Active Long-Term Holders" (Active LTH). This also implies that new capital is accumulating at higher prices, shifting control from older holdings to new entrants.

The analysis introduces the cost basis benchmark for “Active Long-Term Holders” since 2019. The purpose is to exclude those long-dormant, largely non-liquid old coins, making the cost basis for long-term holders more closely reflect actual market holding costs.

However, the analyst also admits that the seven-year observation window is inherently subjective in its setting, meaning the indicator signal is not absolutely perfect. Still, compared with not making such distinctions, its filtering criteria are more consistent, and the conclusion is therefore more meaningful.

Based on historical cycle patterns, this is the fifth time the signal has appeared, which also lends it greater credibility. At the same time, the analyst emphasizes that there is always room for error in any signal, and this must be stated plainly.

The reason dormant coins are not included in the cost basis is supported by the data. Currently, more than 3.5 million Bitcoins have been held for over 10 years without any movement, and they continue to increase at a pace of 8,000 to 30,000 coins per month.

Notably, since 2019, this average value has only shown a negative reading once. At that time, an early miner woke up and transferred about 100,000 Bitcoins, but this was an extremely isolated case and does not affect the overall trend.

The analyst said that if the signal becomes invalid later, they will inform the community immediately. But for now, this is a fairly positive development for Bitcoin—especially because it is supported by ongoing ETF inflows.

#比特币牛市行情

Musk Shares a Post by DreamWorks Co-Founder: AI Won’t Replace Creativity; the Industry Should Help Set the Rules

On September 23, Musk reposted on X a long article by Jeffrey Katzenberg, co-founder of DreamWorks and a Hollywood producer, discussing AI and the creative industries. The post has garnered 5.37 million views and more than 7,500 likes.

In the piece, Katzenberg said AI is rapidly reshaping the film and animation industry. He predicts that a new generation of AI tools could, within three years, cut the time and costs required to produce top-tier animations by as much as 90%.

In his view, AI is reshaping the creative industry, but genuine creativity still depends on human taste, intuition, and the desire to express—an unbridgeable gap that AI has not yet crossed, because human creations carry subjective thoughts.

He believes AI is good at reasoning, pattern recognition, and optimization, but the unique combination of human taste, intuition, empathy, and expression is the true source of creativity. There remains an essential difference between AI-generated content and human creative work that carries subjective intent.

He also compares the disruptive impact of the current wave of AI animation to the shock felt across the entire industry when the 3D computer animation era at Pixar began with the release of “Pixar 3D” in 1986.

Looking back at past technological shifts such as sound films and computer animation, Katzenberg believes that while new technology will inevitably eliminate some old jobs, it will also expand artistic expression forms and create new creative possibilities.

He further called on Hollywood: rather than simply resisting AI, it should proactively participate in the formulation of AI application rules. He also suggested that AI developers should use creators’ works on the basis of authorization, proper attribution, and reasonable compensation.

He expects that as AI continues to lower the barriers to film production, more films and entirely new narrative formats will emerge. And with Silicon Valley’s new technology tools combined with Hollywood’s creative core, the two together will help define the future of the content industry.

#AI重塑内容创作格局

On Wednesday, U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETF net inflows totaled nearly $452 million, with products from BlackRock leading the net inflows

September 24, according to SoSovalue data: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs yesterday saw nearly $347 million in net inflows, marking the fifth consecutive day of total net inflows;

Of these, BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC recorded $166 million (about 1,970 BTC) and $143 million (about 1,700 BTC) in single-day net inflows, ranking first and second respectively;

Morgan Stanley’s MSBT and Ark&21Shares’ ARKB recorded $32.41 million (383.93 BTC) and $5.04 million (59.66 BTC) in single-day net inflows;

As of now, the total net asset value of spot Bitcoin ETFs stands at $108.66 billion, representing 6.42% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization, with cumulative total net inflows of $57.22 billion.

On the same day, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded nearly $105 million in net inflows, marking the fourth consecutive day of total net inflows;

Among these, BlackRock’s ETHA and Fidelity’s FETH recorded $50.8 million (about 19,010 ETH) and $41.28 million (about 15,440 ETH) in single-day net inflows, respectively;

Next were Grayscale’s ETHE, 21Shares’ TETH, and Frankin’s EZET, with single-day net inflows of $4.3 million (about 1,610 ETH), $4.01 million (about 1,500 ETH), and $3.04 million (about 1,140 ETH), respectively;

VanEck ETHV, Morgan Stanley’s MSSE, and Invesco QETH recorded $2.93 million (about 1,100 ETH), $1.44 million (538.06 ETH), and $0.93 million (348.73 ETH) in single-day net inflows, respectively;

Meanwhile, only Grayscale’s ETH ETF saw net outflows yesterday, recording $4.09 million (about 1,530 ETH).

As of now, the total net asset value of spot Ethereum ETFs stands at $17.50 billion, representing 5.37% of Ethereum’s total market capitalization, with cumulative total net inflows of $13.79 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

BlackRock: AI agents may trigger a new wave of demand for cryptocurrencies

Recently, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, released a research report titled “The Machine-Native Economy.” The report suggests that AI agents could become a core driver of the next surge in demand for crypto assets.

The report’s central logic is that AI agents represent machine-native intelligence, while digital assets are machine-native money. The two are inherently complementary, making their integration an inevitable trend.

The AI agents referred to by BlackRock are systems that can autonomously plan and execute multi-step tasks, and can independently call various services to automatically complete payments.

Traditional payment systems rely on human identity for account opening, and their fee models are not suitable for small, high-frequency API calls below one cent. Stablecoins, however, enable instant settlement 24/7 without banking intermediaries, making them a perfect fit for micro-payment scenarios between machines.

The report data show that in 2025, the adjusted trading volume of stablecoins surpassed $1.1 trillion—comparable in scale to Visa and Mastercard—and they maintain roughly 80% year-over-year growth, far higher than the 8.5% growth rate of traditional ACH transfer systems.

The report also proposes a new concept: tokenizing computing power as an asset. Specifically, computing power would be traded, collateralized, and automatically settled on-chain, much like commodity futures. AI agents would autonomously compare prices to procure the optimal cloud-computing resources, directly eliminating the need for human negotiation.

BlackRock expects that by 2030, total cloud business revenue from the three major vendors—Amazon, Microsoft, and Google—could reach $1.1 trillion, and computing-power tokenization may open up a new category of assets.

However, current industry deployment at scale remains limited. On the infrastructure front, although Coinbase’s x402 protocol has already supported automatic on-chain payment completion when calling APIs, Amazon and Google are also building accompanying agent payment frameworks.

But based on actual trading data, most transactions at this stage still come from ordinary automation scripts rather than fully autonomous AI agents.

Among these, blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs’ statistics on settlement volume totaling $52.7 million under the x402 protocol show that payments generated by true AI agents account for only 0.6% to 7.5%.

BlackRock acknowledges that while widespread adoption of AI agents will take time, the underlying economic infrastructure to support them is already taking shape. It recommends laying the groundwork early and waiting for the breakthrough at the application layer.

#AI智能体

The Bank of Russia Sets a Regulatory Deadline: Illegal Cryptocurrency Exchange Traders Must Clear the Grey Zone by July 2027 at the Latest

September 24, according to TASS, Bogdan Shablya, head of the financial monitoring and currency control department of the Bank of Russia, said on Thursday at the 23rd International Banking Forum that, as laws related to digital currencies are implemented, the grey market zone created by illegal cryptocurrency exchangers will no longer exist before July 1, 2027.

Shablya said that after July 1, 2027, the crypto market will be clearly divided into compliant “white areas” and illegal “black areas,” and that regulators will implement corresponding penalties for black-market operators. This statement reflects that Russia is accelerating the development of compliance in the crypto market, using a legal framework to define boundaries and rectify industry order.

It is worth noting that Russia is not banning cryptocurrencies across the board. Instead, through legislative measures, it will bring the relevant business activities under a “two-tier regulatory framework,” clearing grey exchange channels from the source. However, whether this policy will be effective still depends on whether enforcement is strong enough, and whether cross-border fund-tracking technology is mature, since these factors will directly determine how quickly underground exchange activities can be eliminated.

#俄罗斯央行 #非法加密兑换

U.S. Treasury yields rise to 5%, pressuring risk assets; Bitcoin drops below $85,000

On September 24, driven by stronger-than-expected U.S. September PMI data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield once again climbed above 5%. Risk assets came under pressure. Bitcoin also fell back and broke below $85,000, ending the rebound attempt that had previously pushed toward $88,000.

Data showed that the U.S. September composite PMI rose to 58.4, the highest level in more than five years. Both the services and manufacturing PMI were also significantly above market expectations.

Although the data points to an acceleration in U.S. economic growth, corporate input material costs also saw their largest increase in four years. Combined with supply-chain bottlenecks and tight hiring conditions, the market worries that inflation may resurface, further reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high.

Amid the impact of strong U.S. September PMI data, the Treasury market saw heavy selling. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returned above 5%, while yields on two-year Treasuries climbed in tandem.

Notably, this shift in the macro rate environment quickly transmitted to the crypto market, creating a clear drag on risk assets.

According to Coinglass data, over the past 24 hours the total amount liquidated in the crypto market was $540 million, with 124,629 traders sustaining losses—most of them liquidated long positions.

Some analysts noted that Bitcoin’s rise earlier this week was driven to a large extent by a boost from short-covering. Now, short positions have largely been flushed. To move back above $85,000, it will require support from fresh spot buying.

Therefore, under the backdrop of Treasury yields lingering above 5%, the high-interest-rate environment is likely to continue suppressing risk appetite for crypto assets. The direction of the market will heavily depend on the strength of spot fund inflows.

#美债收益率破5

Arkham Data: Tesla Holds 11,509 BTC, Just One Step Away From $1 Billion in Value

On September 23, according to official data from blockchain analytics platform Arkham, Tesla currently holds 11,509 bitcoins, which—based on current prices—are worth about $992 million.

Notably, although Tesla’s number of bitcoin holdings has remained unchanged since early 2025 (always 11,509 BTC), its market value fluctuates in real time with swings in the price of bitcoin.

Looking back at Tesla’s history of bitcoin investment, the company first entered the market in February 2021, buying BTC for about $1.5 billion, with an average purchase cost of roughly $350,000. At one point, it became one of the publicly listed companies holding the most bitcoin globally.

After that, Tesla went through partial sales in 2021, realizing a $272 million profit; and further selling and reducing holdings in 2022, generating $936 million in cash proceeds—ultimately stabilizing its holdings at the current 11,509 BTC.

In 2025, Tesla’s 10-K filing submitted to the SEC for the first time officially disclosed this exact figure, which matches on-chain tracking data precisely.

It is also worth noting that another company owned by Musk, SpaceX, currently holds about 18,712 bitcoins—already exceeding Tesla’s total holdings.

At present, the combined holdings of these two companies total more than 30,000 BTC, making Musk’s business empire one of the largest groups of bitcoin holders among non-crypto-native enterprises worldwide.

Right now, Tesla’s remaining bitcoin holdings are about to cross the $1 billion mark. Do you think it will choose to reduce its holdings after breaking through? Musk’s “laid-back” holdings versus a strategy of continued accumulation— which do you prefer? Share your thoughts in the comments!

#特斯拉比特币持仓

BitMEX Exchange Officially Ceases Operations　Existing users are advised to withdraw their remaining assets as soon as possible

On September 23, according to BitMEX’s latest official X post, the exchange officially ceased operations at 04:00 UTC on September 23, 2026. User funds are currently completely safe, and login and withdrawal functions remain available.

BitMEX also advises existing users to withdraw their remaining withdrawable balances as soon as possible. Withdrawals can be made via the BitMEX web platform. Please note that the exchange’s deposit function has been synchronised and shut down, and users should not send any funds to BitMEX addresses.

With the exchange ceasing operations, the account fee policy takes effect immediately. Going forward, for users who have completed KYC verification, the exchange balance will incur a monthly fee calculated at an annual interest rate of 19% or a USD equivalent of $50 (whichever is higher).

To ensure users can withdraw smoothly, the platform is rolling out security measures in phases, including simplifying website experience, KYC updates, and a cooling-off period. It will also send users detailed withdrawal instructions and notifications of subsequent operational changes via their account email.

Looking back at the history of this shutdown, BitMEX first released an announcement on July 23, stating that it would officially stop operations after two months. After a two-month transition period, this once-leading crypto derivatives trading platform today bids farewell to the crypto market stage.

In summary, BitMEX’s official curtain call as the world’s first to launch a cryptocurrency perpetual contracts platform, in a sense, also marks a new chapter in the era of the crypto industry.

While its closure is an unfortunate move driven by regulatory pressure and poor operations, it also reflects the inevitable trend of the crypto industry moving from wild growth toward compliance.

For users, withdrawing assets in a timely manner is the top priority. For the industry, rising compliance barriers will speed up market reshuffling, and market resources are accelerating their shift toward leading platforms.

#BitMEX关闭

US BTC and ETH spot ETF recorded a combined net inflow of $877 million on Tuesday, with no category in the entire range showing a net outflow

On September 23, according to SoSovalue data, US BTC spot ETFs saw net total inflows of nearly $715 million yesterday, marking the fourth consecutive day of net inflows;

Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT led with net inflows of $350 million (about 4,050 BTC), $257 million (about 2,980 BTC), and $99.01 million (about 1,150 BTC), respectively, ranking top three by yesterday’s net inflows;

Next were Grayscale’s BTC, VanEck’s HODL, and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT, which recorded daily net inflows of $4.95 million (57.32 BTC), $2.44 million (28.28 BTC), and $0.57 million (6.63 BTC), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $110.84 billion, accounting for 6.40% of Bitcoin’s total market value, with cumulative net inflows of $56.87 billion.

On the same day, US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $162 million, marking the third consecutive day of total net inflows;

Among them, BlackRock’s ETHA, Fidelity’s FETH, and Grayscale’s ETH led with net inflows of $88.13 million (about 31,980 ETH), $33.64 million (about 12,210 ETH), and $27.31 million (about 9,910 ETH), respectively, ranking top three by yesterday’s net inflows;

Following that were Grayscale’s ETHE and BlackRock’s ETHB, recording daily net inflows of $10.39 million (about 3,770 ETH) and $2.84 million (about 1,030 ETH), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $17.92 billion, accounting for 5.34% of Ethereum’s total market value, with cumulative net inflows of $13.68 billion.

It is worth noting that among other crypto ETFs across all categories, yesterday saw no fund experience total net outflows, indicating overall positive market fund flows and generally stable investor sentiment.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Deribit data: Options worth over $18.2 billion in BTC and ETH to expire this Friday

On September 22, according to Deribit’s official data, approximately $18.239 billion worth of BTC and ETH options will expire this Friday (at 16:00 two days later).

Of this, the notional value of BTC options is about $16.08 billion, with a put/call ratio of 0.68. The maximum pain strike price is $75,000. The overall options sentiment into expiry is bullish;

At present, the BTC market price is above $86,500, significantly higher than the options’ maximum pain strike, and within this range, bullish expectations are notably higher than bearish expectations;

On the same day, the notional value of ETH expiring options is about $2.159 billion, with a put/call ratio of 0.61 and a maximum pain point at $2,250. The options sentiment at expiry is also overall bullish.

Currently, the ETH market price is above $2,750, which is similarly significantly higher than the options’ maximum pain strike, and bullish expectations are clearly higher than bearish expectations;

In summary, both the BTC and ETH options markets show a market-dominant structure led by longs. Combined with the fact that both spot prices are significantly higher than the maximum pain, this suggests limited near-term selling pressure in the derivatives market. New capital continues to flow into the spot market and may help sustain a bullish trend.

#期权交割日

Trump May Set Up an Artificial Intelligence Adviser and an “AI Force”; U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent Could Also Serve as an “AI Tsar”

According to sources familiar with the matter, a report said on Tuesday that as U.S. lawmakers’ concerns about the risks of artificial intelligence technology continue to intensify, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may take on the role of the newly created “AI tsar” under President Trump.

Although the news was first disclosed by overseas media, another source familiar with the matter said no formal decision has been made yet, and the Treasury Department has made no comment on whether Bessent would hold a new post.

In remarks made last Saturday, Trump said he plans to appoint an AI adviser known as an “AI tsar” and form an “AI force.” However, he did not provide details on the specific plans or how the two initiatives would be implemented.

Moreover, on regulation, Trump has repeatedly downplayed public concerns about AI and openly claimed there is no need to introduce additional regulatory measures.

In fact, Bessent’s potential appointment is not without precedent. Last Sunday, he met with He Lifeng, the vice premier of China’s State Council, in New York, in preparation for this week’s summit between Trump and Xi Jinping in Washington, where artificial intelligence was one of the key topics.

After the meeting, Bessent told reporters that the U.S. proposed a plan to establish an AI safety incident reporting mechanism and a framework for U.S.-China AI dialogue, with particular emphasis on considerations related to national security.

In addition to serving as U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent has also led major reforms to U.S. trade policy, negotiated a key minerals agreement with Ukraine, temporarily served as acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, concurrently served as acting commissioner of the IRS, and oversaw efforts to isolate Iran through sanctions.

At present, if the AI tsar role is added to Bessent’s responsibilities once again, his authority would span areas including economics and trade, finance, taxation, diplomacy, and technology regulation. His scope of authority would further expand, giving him a unique “super minister” status within the cabinet.

#贝森特或出任AI沙皇

Analyst: Bitcoin Breaks Key Moving Average, Recreating Historical Bull Market Model; Short-Term Targets $88,000

After weeks of consolidation and a so-called “bear trap,” Bitcoin successfully reclaimed the 50-week moving average on Monday and briefly neared $88,000 amid a surge-driven rally.

According to analysis by Doctor Profit, the current Bitcoin price action closely mirrors the market structure seen from 2022 to 2023. Looking back at history, Bitcoin has repeatedly launched bull markets after breaking below the 50-week line and then regaining it.

This time, after 3 to 4 weeks of sideways trading around the same resistance level, the bears’ momentum weakened and triggered a reversal. This “bull-trap-and-breakout” structure has also set the stage for BTC to hold the $82,500 to $83,000 zone.

Doctor Profit believes that if the weekly close can firmly stay above this moving average, a broader bullish trend will be established, and the initial target for the next leg of the bull market will point to $88,000.

Meanwhile, market commentator Crypto Patel, viewing from a long-term perspective, notes that during Bitcoin’s past two bull-bear alternation cycles, the time interval from the previous all-time high to the next cycle’s trough has been about 364 days;

in particular, the period from the 2017 peak to the end of 2018, and from the 2021 peak to the end of 2022, both fit this time pattern. Now, it appears that BTC’s move from its 2025 high to this cycle’s low may also be replicating the same rhythm.

The view further points out that after breaking below key levels, Bitcoin is now retesting a long-term trend support line. If this historical pattern and market timing can continue to unfold, BTC’s next upside target could reach $3.7 million.

In summary, although technical breakouts and historical cycle convergence provide dual support for the bullish case, investors should remain clear-eyed: analysts’ models are always built on summaries of historical data, and the market is never short of black swan events.

For ordinary investors, rather than chasing imagined price targets, it’s better to focus on confirmation signals from weekly closes. After all, in the crypto market, the duration of a trend is often more practical than predicting turning points.

#比特币市场解读

SEC Innovation Exemption Framework Rolls Out in Just One Week; First Tokenized Stock Trading Platforms May Be Announced Next Quarter

September 22 — According to reports from foreign media, Taylor Lindman, Chief Legal Counsel of the SEC’s Crypto Working Group, revealed that under the “innovation exemption” framework for tokenized securities launched this month, the first tokenized stock trading platforms will be announced at the earliest next quarter.

So far, the SEC has received inquiries from multiple companies seeking specific guidance on how to apply the exemption provisions, indicating strong industry attention to the compliance path for tokenized securities.

The development was triggered on the 17th of this month, when the SEC formally issued a five-year “innovation exemption.” For the first time, it provides an open and compliant pathway for secondary trading of on-chain tokenized stocks. Eligible trading venues can be exempted from registration requirements at traditional exchanges.

Under this framework, trading platforms can conduct tokenized trading of U.S. listed stocks on public blockchains using licensed automated market makers (AMMs) and liquidity pools. The relevant market makers also receive corresponding registration exemptions.

However, this exemption is not an open-ended relaxation; it clearly sets three investor-protection red lines: tokenized shares must provide equal rights to shareholders; smart contracts must be publicly available and auditable; and when the underlying stocks are halted, on-chain trading must stop simultaneously.

In summary, from the formal release of the policy exemption to the preparation and launch of the first platforms, only about one week has passed. This also means that compliant tokenized stocks have moved from the rulemaking stage into a rapid implementation phase.

As the largest core category within the entire RWA track, once on-chain stocks successfully run pilot trials, they will also open up an incremental entry point—of trillions in scale—connecting the crypto ecosystem to traditional U.S. equities markets.

#代币化股票

U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETF net inflows totalled $1.269 billion on Monday; among all-category crypto ETFs, only one had a net outflow on the day.

On September 22, according to SoSovalue data, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net total inflows of nearly $999 million yesterday, marking the third consecutive day of total net inflows;

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT, Ark&21Shares' ARKB, and Fidelity's FBTC ranked as the top three in net inflows yesterday, with $381 million (about 4,420 BTC), $289 million (about 3,350 BTC), and nearly $239 million (about 2,770 BTC), respectively;

Next were Morgan Stanley's MSBT and Bitwise's BITB, which recorded daily net inflows of $61.67 million (713.99 BTC) and $21.56 million (249.59 BTC), respectively;

Grayscale's GBTC and BTC recorded daily net inflows of $3.34 million (38.70 BTC) and $3.06 million (35.41 BTC), respectively;

As of now, total net asset value of spot Bitcoin ETFs is $110.14 billion, accounting for 6.30% of Bitcoin's total market cap, with cumulative total net inflows of $56.16 billion.

On the same day, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net total inflows of nearly $270 million for a second consecutive day;

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA and Fidelity's FETH ranked first and second in net inflows yesterday, with $110 million (about 39,820 ETH) and $72.96 million (about 26,400 ETH), respectively;

Next were Grayscale's ETH and BlackRock's ETHB, recording daily net inflows of $59.30 million (about 21,460 ETH) and $12.80 million (about 4,630 ETH), respectively;

Grayscale's ETHE, Bitwise's ETHW, 21Shares' TETH, and Morgan Stanley's MSSE recorded daily net inflows of $4.88 million, $4.35 million, $4.14 million, and $1.49 million, respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of spot Ethereum ETFs is $17.82 billion, accounting for 5.24% of Ethereum's total market cap, with cumulative total net inflows of $13.52 billion.

Among other all-category crypto ETFs, only the LTC ETF recorded a small net outflow on the day; the SOL, HYPE, ZEC, DOGE, and LINK ETFs recorded net total inflows to varying degrees.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Bloomberg: The U.S. Department of Justice launches a criminal investigation into Binance, aiming to determine whether it intentionally allowed sanctions-violating trades to proceed

On September 22, Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that U.S. federal prosecutors are conducting a criminal investigation into Binance Holdings Ltd., focusing on whether the platform violated U.S. sanctions rules on Iran by failing to block certain transactions.

The investigation is led by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, and the Criminal Division of the U.S. Department of Justice in Washington has also been involved. According to people familiar with the matter, authorities are particularly investigating whether Binance allowed the relevant transactions to go through despite knowing they were违规.

The origins of this investigation trace back to the large-scale movement of Iranian oil funds through crypto channels that was exposed last month, which directly drew significant attention from U.S. prosecutors and prompted the probe to be escalated.

According to disclosures by the prosecution, at least seven interconnected crypto wallets collectively received and transferred more than $1.5 billion in proceeds from Iranian oil, and some of the funds ultimately flowed to entities associated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Notably, this is not the first time Binance has faced allegations related to sanctions compliance. In 2023, Binance pleaded guilty to violations of U.S. anti-money-laundering and sanctions regulations, paid a record $4.3 billion in fines, and agreed to a five-year period of independent regulatory oversight.

In addition, due to this sanctions-related case, Binance’s former CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) was also imprisoned for four months, before being pardoned by then-President Trump in 2025.

If this investigation confirms that Binance continued to commit sanctions violations after the settlement despite knowing it was wrongdoing, the consequences could trigger more stringent provisions in the prior settlement agreement, and would directly affect Binance’s business operations and regulatory standing.

#币安刑事调查