News Overview: The 'Silent Moment' of Privacy Coins
Although ZEC (Zcash) is an established privacy coin, its technological upgrades and compliance progress are still of core community interest. Recently, the overall cryptocurrency market has been dominated by macro sentiment and BTC. The news shows a 'silent period': no sudden positive or negative impacts, which often means ZEC will more purely follow technical movements and market fluctuations. Investors should be cautious; in this period lacking independent narratives, ZEC is more likely to experience 'spikes' and 'false breakouts' at key levels, and volatility may be amplified.
Technical Deep Dive: The 'Trap' and 'Truth' of the One-Hour Chart
From the provided one-hour K-line chart, the structure is clear but hides danger:
Pressure system is clear:
Strong pressure area: $434 (intra-day pullback pressure level)
Secondary pressure area: $415 (intra-day pressure level)
The dividing line between bulls and bears: $399 (if this level is broken, bears will take full control)
Support system is fragile:
Primary support: $378 (intra-day support level)
Core support: $358 (intra-day rebound support level, also the phased target of this decline)
Indicator signals are conflicting, but the truth is singular:
MACD 'golden cross' illusion: Although the yellow and white lines form a golden cross below the 0 axis and rise at a uniform speed, this represents a weak rebound repair in a downtrend, a typical technical retracement, and definitely not a trend reversal signal.
Hidden dangers of volume balance: During the rebound, the volume did not significantly increase, indicating extremely weak willingness to follow the bulls, making the rebound unsustainable.
Overbought greater than oversold: indicates that market sentiment remains bearish in the short term, with heavy selling pressure above.
Sharp view from Xin Ying: Do not be deceived by the 'golden cross' below the 0 axis! This is merely a 'breath' in a bearish trend, aimed at attracting bottom fishing, to accumulate momentum for the subsequent decline. The real direction is still determined by the descending trend line and layers of resistance levels.
Market simulation: two scripts, one ending
Script one (high probability, 70%): Rebound is weak, bears are crushing
After the price oscillates in the 399-415 range and fails to break through the strong resistance at 415, it will turn down. Breaking below the 399 dividing line will accelerate the drop towards the first target of 378, ultimately testing the core support at 358.
Script two (low probability, 30%): Violent rebound, trap for the bulls
If driven by the strong market, ZEC could violently surge to the resistance levels of 415 or even 434. This would be an excellent shorting opportunity and also the last lifeline for the bulls. Any high point formed at this position will become a temporary top.
Xin Ying's practical strategy: Retail investors' survival guide for tonight
For players holding or paying attention to ZEC, please strictly follow the following strategy:
Overall policy: focus on shorting at highs, never chase prices.
Key operational point:
Short position layout area: Within the range of 415-434, gradually establish short positions, with stop-loss above 440. First target 399, second target 378, ultimate target 358.
Taking risks with long positions: limited to short-term experts, it is possible to take a small position for a rebound near 358 during a rapid decline, targeting 378-399, and strict stop-loss must be set (e.g., if it drops below 355).
Position and risk control: ZEC's liquidity is relatively weak compared to mainstream coins, with high volatility. A single position must not exceed 10% of total funds, and stop-loss must be set; refusal to hold onto losing positions.
Xin Ying's conclusion: In the mist of privacy, see the iron law of the K-line
The story of ZEC is about 'privacy', but the iron law of the market is always 'price'. When the technical chart clearly shows pressure and support, and indicators emit conflicting noise, we must choose to believe the most intuitive structure: the oscillating downtrend remains unchanged, and any rebound is a gift from the bears.
Remember Xin Ying's words: In a descending channel, those who catch falling knives often get stabbed. Patiently wait for a rebound to the pressure level before pulling the trigger; that is the quality of a hunter.#ETH走势分析
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