Everyone, the Xin Ying tracking is here! The ZEC one-hour line is in a state of great indecision, with bulls and bears tugging back and forth around the critical level of 398. It looks calm on the surface, but there are hidden dangers.
Technical analysis in-depth:
Position determines direction: currently, the price is stuck near the 398 watershed between bulls and bears. Above this level, bulls still have hopes, with a chance to test resistances at 415 or even 435; below this level, bears will dominate, directly aiming for supports at 378 and 358.
MACD has signaled a turning point: the yellow and white lines are above the 0 axis but have turned from a golden cross to a dead cross, and are closely adhering to the 0 axis. This is a classic warning signal of 'weakening momentum, potential trend reversal'. It indicates that short-term upward momentum is insufficient, and bears are beginning to accumulate strength.
Moving Average System Stalemate: The values of MA5 and MA10 are close and unclear in direction, with fierce battles between bulls and bears, but the moving averages have failed to provide clear upward support, increasing the uncertainty of directional choice after the volatility.
Key price levels are clear:
Two high pressure levels above: 415 (intraday pressure) and 435 (strong resistance on retracement). Any rebound to these levels is a strong resistance zone.
Two levels of support below: 378 (intraday support) and 358 (lifeline for rebounds). Especially 358, which is key to determining whether this wave of volatility will evolve into a deep correction.
News Flash:
ZEC, as an established privacy coin, has seen relatively calm news recently. However, its trend is often closely related to the overall cryptocurrency market's sensitivity to regulatory policies and the rotation of funds in the anonymous technology sector. It is essential to closely monitor any regulatory developments regarding privacy coins and large on-chain transfer data. In the absence of independent significant positive news, ZEC is more likely to be dominated by technical factors, following the emotional fluctuations of the market.
Xinying’s Exclusive Prediction:
In summary, I lean towards a 'bearish bias'. The reason is simple:
A MACD high-level death cross is a genuine bearish signal.
Prices are near the critical level of 398, requiring strong volume to break upward, while downward movement may 'naturally slide' due to exhausted momentum.
The upper pressure levels are clear and dense (415, 435), while the support below, if broken (398), will open up space.
Therefore, I believe the probability of a direct strong impact on the 435 pressure level is low. The greater possibility is: After oscillating between 398-415, the market will choose to test the 378 support downwards. If market sentiment deteriorates or there are negative factors, a rapid drop to around 358 seeking a strong rebound cannot be ruled out.
Practical Strategy (please match your positions):
Empty positions/Observers: Patiently wait for a clear direction. Focus on the gains and losses around 398. If it stabilizes above 398 and launches strongly, a light long position can be taken towards 415; conversely, if it effectively breaks below 398, wait for a rebound to near 398 or around the 415 resistance level for short opportunities, targeting the 378-358 range.
Holders (bulls): Set 398 as the defensive baseline. If it breaks, consider reducing positions or stopping losses. If the price rebounds to the 415-435 area and encounters significant resistance, it is also a time to reduce positions and lock in profits.
Short-term traders: Can look for signs of stagnation near the two pressure levels of 415 and 435 to layout short positions, with stop losses set above the pressure levels, targeting 398 and 378. Aggressive players can look for stabilization signals near the 358 support level to bet on rebounds, with strict stop losses.
Core Discipline: We are currently in a period of volatility and directional selection; avoid chasing highs and cutting losses. All operations must be light positions, and clear stop-losses should be set.
Xinying Summary:
ZEC is currently at a critical moment, with the technical pattern on the hourly chart more favorable for bears. In the absence of sudden positive news stimuli, the 'high short' strategy currently has a better cost-performance ratio than 'low long'. Remember, in a volatile market, position and rhythm are more important than direction. I am Xinying, focusing on interpreting the market from a practical perspective!#比特币VS代币化黄金
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