$ASTER the price is collapsing and the major fundamental news, even CZ buying and trading, have not managed to push it up. Since the peaks after the introduction, above $2, the price has compressed into a clear downward structure and is now trading around the $0.74 to $0.75 region, representing more than a 65% drop from the peaks and about 25% below the $1 level where even strategic buyers were involved.
Token unlocks and supply pressure
ASTER has a large maximum supply (8B) with only a fraction in circulation. As unlocks reach the market, short-term holders and airdrop liquidity are naturally looking for exits. This constant issuance acts as a ceiling during early price discovery, especially when demand growth does not immediately exceed the new supply. This is not unique to ASTER. This is how most newly listed tokens behave during their first major cycle.
Binance listings tend to aggressively front-run. Liquidity spikes occur early, expectations quickly reach their peak, and then the price takes weeks to months to find a realistic balance. What we are seeing now is not isolated weakness, but normalization after a compression of enthusiasm.
ASTER is trading with strong derivatives participation. When momentum turns bearish, leverage accelerates the decline. This does not mean the asset is 'dead'. It means it is being traded, not abandoned.
The structure of the chart
On the 12H chart, $ASTER has respected a clean descending channel since November. The price is now close to the lower limit of this structure, an area where sellers have already expressed themselves several times. This is not a breakout chart. It is a compression and exhaustion zone.
I am not buying strength here.
I am beginning to expose myself to weakness, fully aware that it is early and not without risk.
Why am I buying?
Because this is where the risk asymmetry begins to improve.
At these levels:
The decline is increasingly defined by structure, not by emotion.
A large portion of speculative supply has already been renewed.
The unlock narrative is known, not hidden.
Sentiment is decisively bearish, which is exactly when price stops rewarding consensus.
Fundamentally, ASTER is not a low-effort launch. The project operates in the infrastructure layer of perpetuals/derivatives, where volume, fees, and execution matter more than narratives. There is also a clear proximity to capital aligned with Binance and advisory circles, with CZ publicly involved at an advisory level. This does not guarantee a rise, but it reduces tail risk compared to anonymous launches.
This is not a call for a direct V reversal. Unlocks may still limit short-term ascent. Sideways movements and additional base building are realistic outcomes. Anyone entering here should size accordingly and respect invalidation.
I am taking my first entry in this area, not because the price looks good, but because the risk profile is finally favorable. If the structure fails, I will step aside. If supply pressure eases and demand stabilizes, this becomes a very different chart over time.
The first entries are always uncomfortable.
Late entries seem obvious but cost you multiples.
From a trader's perspective, this is where opportunity begins to exist.
