The fourth quarter of 2025 has not yet ended, but the outcome is almost predetermined. Bitcoin is approaching the end of the year with a deep deficit and is confidently moving towards the worst Q4 result since 2018. Time for a turnaround is running out, and the market is not providing any prerequisites for a sharp reversal.
The decline looks particularly striking against the backdrop of the autumn statements by Eric Trump, the son of U.S. President Donald Trump. He expected a strong finish to the year. The market, as often happens, went in the opposite direction.
Optimistic forecast and harsh reality
In the fall, Eric Trump stated in an interview with the New York Post that the end of the year would be successful for the crypto market. He appealed to the historical strength of the fourth quarter, expectations of liquidity growth, and easing financial conditions.
'I think the fourth quarter of this year will be incredible for a number of reasons.'
It is December 17, 2025, and this quote now looks more like a reminder of how dangerous it is to rely on seasonal patterns. Instead of a rally, the market has plunged into a prolonged correction.
Figures that are hard to ignore
According to CoinGlass, the yield of Bitcoin in the current fourth quarter is −23.73%. Even if there is a rebound in the remaining days of December, fully compensating for such a decline will be extremely difficult.
Formally, the quarter continues. In fact, it has already gone down in history as one of the weakest.
The current decline makes the fourth quarter of 2025 the worst since 2018.
For comparison:
2018 year, Q4: −42.16%
2019 year, Q4: −13.54%
2022 year, Q4: −14.75%
2024 year, Q4: +47.73%
Even in subsequent bear years, the market looked more resilient at the end of the year. And a strong Q4 of 2024 only strengthened the belief that December almost automatically works in favor of bulls. The year 2025 broke this logic.
Historically, the fourth quarter has been considered the most favorable period for Bitcoin. The average yield exceeded +77%, with the median hovering around +48%. These figures have shaped expectations of the 'New Year rally' for decades and fueled traders' optimism. The current result stands out from this picture.
Eric Trump once again did not predict the market movement
An additional layer of irony is added by the reaction of the crypto community to Eric Trump's forecasts. By the end of 2025, he had firmly established himself as a meme character who often makes incorrect predictions.
Throughout the year, his calls to 'buy on dips' often coincided with subsequent declines or rapid market pullbacks. Many investors started to act contrary to Eric Trump's statements. That is, if the president's son promises growth, market participants bet on a decline.
Therefore, the forecast of an 'incredible' fourth quarter was initially met with skepticism. The results of December only intensified this skepticism.
Results that you won’t like
Although the fourth quarter of 2025 is not yet closed, the chances of fully recovering the current decline appear minimal. Bitcoin is confidently heading for the worst Q4 since 2018, ignoring both historical seasonality and public optimism.
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