📊 Bitcoin — Daily Timeframe Outlook | Dec 17 (Wednesday) | 3-Month Market Structure
Bitcoin is currently trading below a short-term downtrend-line that was briefly broken on December 15.
However, the daily candle on December 16 failed to close below $86,000, keeping the possibility open that the move lower was a fake breakdown rather than the start of a sustained downtrend.
This price behavior suggests that downside momentum is weakening, and Bitcoin may still have room to reclaim its upward structure if key levels are recovered.
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🌍 Macro & Liquidity Context
Recent US data came in supportive of potential rate cuts:
Weaker wage growth
Higher unemployment
Moderate job gains
Together, these signals suggest that inflation pressures remain under control.
As a result, markets stayed relatively calm, with Bitcoin stabilizing after pushing toward $88,000.
This macro backdrop reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve and keeps liquidity expectations supportive for risk assets, including crypto.
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📈 Bullish Scenario
The bullish case remains valid if Bitcoin:
Breaks and holds above $89,000
Re-enters the short-term uptrend
Such a move would confirm that the December 15 break was a fake breakdown, opening the door for further upside.
A continuation toward $94,000 would be critical.
A successful break and retest above this level would signal a break of the broader corrective long-term downtrend, potentially marking the end of the correction phase and the start of renewed upside continuation.
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📉 Bearish Scenario
The bearish scenario activates if Bitcoin:
Drops below $86,000
Closes the daily candle below this level
In that case, price may move lower to test $84,000.
If Bitcoin fails to hold $84,000 on a daily close, the next downside target becomes $80,500 —
the same level visited on November 21, which marked the lowest price after the $126,000 all-time high.
— MinaMarkets
