Last night's market gave a cold shower to those who still have delusions of a bullish trend! Lao Luo just pointed out the short position yesterday afternoon, and by evening, ETH plunged to 2870. This market only rewards those with sharp insights and decisive actions. I know that there are definitely people looking at the rebound at 2930, itching to bet on a reversal. But Lao Luo says this: the decline is far from over, and any rebound is just a paper tiger, a golden opportunity given by the market for you to short again! The real suspense is: to what level will the bear's knife ultimately cut ETH's bloodline? Is it 2800, or even lower?
Market sentiment: Panic spreads, with bulls bleeding heavily.
The current market is no longer a simple correction but is permeated with a comprehensive risk aversion sentiment. Just look at this disaster: In the past 24 hours, the number of liquidated positions across the network reached 184,600, with liquidation amounts exceeding **$600 million**, most of which is the blood of long positions. This is not a technical adjustment; it is a collapse of the bulls.
More critically, the background of this decline is very subtle. It is not triggered by a black swan event within the cryptocurrency circle but is synchronized with the decline of global risk assets. When U.S. tech stocks sneeze, cryptocurrencies catch a heavy cold, indicating that large funds are withdrawing from all high-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, and seeking safer havens. Under this main theme of 'risk aversion,' expecting ETH to strengthen independently is undoubtedly wishful thinking.
Even the once-mighty whales are struggling to protect themselves. The 'BTC OG insider whale' you mentioned has seen his ETH long position float loss exceed tens of millions of dollars. The plight of these big players tells us: In the face of trends, those with larger capital may lose even more. The market will not show mercy just because someone is a whale.
Today's direction and core logic: Why is the bearish view firm?
Why does Lao Luo dare to remain bearish even when the market rebounds?
1. The technical aspect has fully broken down, with bears controlling the market: ETH has not only broken the psychological barrier of $3000 but also continuously lost key technical supports like 3150 and 3050. Currently, the price is firmly pressed below the **180-period moving average and mid-band pressure on the 4-hour chart**, and every upward attempt appears weak. From the daily chart perspective, indicators are developing in a more unfavorable direction, and bearish momentum continues to accumulate. Remember, in a downtrend, all rebounds are merely fueling the next, more intense decline.
2. A vicious cycle forms between funding and sentiment: Continuous declines trigger massive long leverage liquidations, and these forced sell orders further exacerbate the selling pressure. Analysts point out that current market liquidity is thin; this environment will **amplify the magnitude of declines**, making each drop feel like free fall. Fear is contagious; when retail investors see the shocking numbers on the liquidation board, their first reaction is to cut losses and flee, not to buy the dip, forming a dead cycle of 'decline-liquidation-panic-further decline.'
3. Macro clouds loom, short-term sunlight hard to see: This week, the market will welcome the heavyweight U.S. CPI inflation data. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve just cutting interest rates while taking a cautious stance, any signs of inflation exceeding expectations could crush the market's fantasy of future easing and trigger a new wave of turmoil. In this environment of high macro uncertainty, large funds will only choose to wait and see or short, rather than risk going long.
Short-term trading strategy: Short on rebounds, key positions clearly outlined.
For the upcoming operations, the thinking must be as clear as a knife. Lao Luo highlights the key points:
Core watershed: $3000. This is the last cover for bulls and the defense line that bears must guard. As long as the price cannot effectively stabilize above $3000, all rises will be regarded as a rebound to lure bulls.
Key pressure above: $3150. This is a more important strong resistance area and the best fortress for bears. A rebound to this level will be an excellent opportunity to re-establish short positions.
Lower core support: $2900, $2810-2820. $2900 is the recent low and will be fiercely contested. The $2810-2820 area is a key support zone from higher-level charts, and the first target of the bearish trend lies here.
Specific operational suggestions.
1. Aggressive short positions: At the current price around 2930 or rebounding to the **2980-3000** area, you can gradually establish short positions with light positions, placing stop-loss above 3050, targeting 2880-2820.
2. Conservative short positions: Patiently wait for the price to rebound to the 3030-3050 pressure zone before entering short positions, with stop-loss set at 3130, targeting around 2820.
3. Regarding going long: Do not actively buy the dip until a clear bottom reversal signal appears on the daily chart. The only short-term long opportunity requires waiting for the price to drop below 2820 and show signs of stabilization, at which point you can cautiously attempt to profit from a rebound, with strict stop-loss measures.
Lao Luo's viewpoint:
At this stage, the market has clearly divided between bulls and bears. Lao Luo's view has always been clear and firm: The trend is king. In a bearish-dominated pattern, any actions to bet against the trend for a rebound are no different from gambling. What we need is not luck, but a respect for the trend and discipline in execution. Waiting for the rebound peak to deliver a fatal blow to the bears is the most rational and likely strategy to reap significant gains.
Follow Lao Luo to avoid traps and accurately grasp every trend explosion point!#巨鲸动向 $ETH
