The big whales have all run away, what are the retail investors waiting for?

Last night, ETH broke through the key support level of $2880, briefly dipping to a low of $2789. Although it rebounded slightly to around $2840, the market's tense atmosphere has already spread.

A certain whale address chose to liquidate after holding for 1127 days, which caused quite a stir in the community.

Watching the candlestick chart struggle repeatedly at a critical position, I can't help but ask you in front of the screen: When the big whales begin to retreat, how should we ordinary investors find our way to survive in this turbulent sea?

Market sentiment: Opportunities and traps in panic

The sudden liquidation by the giant whale is like a huge stone thrown into an already turbulent lake. This address accurately bottomed during the last bear market and chose to exit after holding for over three years; the signal behind this is worth pondering.

On-chain data shows that after this address's liquidation, short-term selling pressure for ETH indeed increased. More importantly, this action triggered a chain reaction in market sentiment—many retail investors began to worry about whether they missed the exit opportunity or hesitated on whether they should follow the footsteps of 'smart money.'

From the funding perspective, although overall market liquidity remains ample, risk appetite has clearly declined. The speed of institutional capital inflow has slowed, while retail trading frequency has increased; this contradictory phenomenon usually occurs at key nodes in market directional choices.


Today's directional logic: Rational choices in a volatile pattern

I believe ETH will continue to fluctuate in the $2800-2880 range today, for three reasons.

On the technical side, $2880 has changed from a previous support level to a resistance level. After breaking this key psychological barrier, time is needed to digest trapped positions and rebuild market confidence. A densely traded area exists around $2780, providing strong short-term support.

On the funding side, although the giant whale's liquidation has increased short-term selling pressure, it also means the release of this part of the long-term locked tokens. From historical experience, massive exits by long-term holders often occur at the market's phase peaks or troughs. Judging by the current position, it is more likely a cautious choice regarding the short-term trend.

On the emotional side, expectations for the approval of ETH spot ETFs remain, but the timeline is uncertain. This state of 'potentially positive but unsure when it will arrive' is most likely to give rise to volatile markets—neither daring to short significantly nor having enough confidence to go all-in long.

For short-term traders, I suggest adopting the following strategy:

Key position identification:

Support level: $2780 (strong support), breaking below may test the 2650 area

Resistance level: $3000 (psychological barrier), a breakthrough must be accompanied by increased volume

Dividing line: $2880 (day's long-short dividing line)

Specific operational suggestions:

If the price rebounds to around 2880 and meets resistance, consider lightly shorting, with a stop loss set above 2920, targeting the 2820-2800 area. If the price directly breaks below 2800, do not rush to bottom fish; wait for stabilization signals around 2780 before making decisions.

If the price unexpectedly breaks through 2880 with volume and stabilizes, consider taking a small position to go long, targeting 2950-3000, but be sure to set a strict stop loss below 2850.

Survival wisdom in volatility

ETH is unlikely to break out into a one-sided trend in the short term and will likely continue to fluctuate in the $2800-2880 range. Although the whale's liquidation has increased market selling pressure, it has also provided more clarity on market signals for rational investors—at this position, the choice of long-term holders to take profits means that further upward movement requires new catalysts.

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