After being in the circle for so many years, I never believed in the metaphysics of the 'four-year cycle'. But this time, from Bitcoin's 126,000 to 94,000, and altcoins halving again and again, I suddenly understood: bulls and bears are not called out, they are dropped out.

Last month when Bitcoin was still hovering around 110,000, how many altcoins rose five to ten times a day? That kind of madness was exactly the same as the peak of the bull market in 2021. At that time, I reminded of the risks, and some people laughed at me as the 'air force commander'. What happened? Hundreds of billions of dollars in leverage were liquidated, and the annual increase was wiped out in a few days — this was not an accident; it was a script that had long been written.

Especially this year is the 18th month after the halving, historical data shows: this time point is often a sensitive period for turning bearish. Bitcoin is barely supported by institutional ETFs, and no one is picking up altcoins; once it drops, it results in a chain reaction.

The technical indicators have already explained everything: all moving averages have broken down, and 72,000 has become the last psychological defense line. With the Federal Reserve hawkish every day, liquidity is getting tighter and tighter, hoping for another wave of 'Christmas rally' at the end of the year? I think it’s very difficult.

Next, the probability is that it will repeatedly fluctuate between 80,000 and 90,000. If 80,000 can't hold, the bear market might really come. But don't despair — ETFs are still experiencing net inflows every day, and large funds have actually been quietly bottom-fishing.

Stop obsessing over whether it's a bull or a bear. The market is always born in despair and ends in madness. Save your bullets and maintain your mindset. Opportunities that drop out are the real opportunities. #BTC走势分析