Without altcoins, the cryptocurrency world lacks soul.
Retail investors aren't here to hedge with a big pie; they're aiming for the hundredfold or thousandfold volatility of altcoins. A daily ±50% is the traffic code of the crypto world. Now there's not even a 10% fluctuation; it seems like funds are withdrawing, but in fact, no one is willing to take over.
The logic is simple:
① If altcoins don't rally, retail investors won't come;
② If retail investors don't come, the market lacks heat;
③ A blockchain without popularity is just code left behind.
If there's never an altcoin season, the cryptocurrency world will slowly degrade into a "digital hedging market."
On the surface, it doesn't look too bad.
Now let's take a look at today's market situation:
BTC has broken below the 4H fluctuation zone, testing the support at 87600;
ETH is troublesome, but after breaking the fluctuation zone, it was pulled back, overall still stronger than BTC.
The problem lies in: the big pie is weak, and Ethereum wants to strengthen independently, which is not easy.
The trend hasn't stopped falling; those looking for bears can leave, and those looking for bulls should hold on, accepting the fluctuations themselves.
ETH has broken the neckline and is currently undergoing a second retest:
– The first retest dipped to 2910;
– It is still near the neckline, with no clear stop-loss signal;
– The MACD bullishness has been damaged, but once is not enough; more K-lines are needed for confirmation.
The sentiment these days is even more panic than that on 10.11. After the black swan event, everyone is waiting for a rebound; once the rebound reaches the descending trend line, it gets pushed back down—slow to rise, fast to fall, very real.
My conclusion is simple: as long as it doesn't fall below 2623, the direction hasn't reversed yet. Patience is more important than judgment.
