Now, is it really time to bear?
In the past few days, many people have reported that platforms like Xiaohongshu, Weibo, Kuaishou, and even WeChat and DingTalk have significantly tightened the content related to encryption, and the dissemination environment has visibly cooled, leading to more pessimistic emotions.
Back to the market itself:
Japan's interest rate hike has finally landed, with BTC bouncing from 84,000 to 88,000, this 4,000 point increase basically just repaired the previous panic overselling. This story has been cooked for a few months, and the market has been waiting for the "shoe to drop."
Before October 11, there was still a bullish lens; the impact of Japan's interest rate hike was limited; after October 11, emotions turned bearish, and any factor that withdraws liquidity will be infinitely amplified. Coupled with the fresh memories of last year's "85 tragedy," this wave of panic has actually been priced in early. Now that the bad news is all out, and with the Christmas holiday approaching, there are no new shocks in the short term, which instead gives a sense of relief after finishing an exam.
But the process is really torturous:
BTC draws a door three times a week, repeatedly smashing from 90,000 back to 84,000–85,000, extreme market conditions play out every day, and even if non-farm payrolls and CPI are good, it still drags down; it can only be understood as the main force clearing leverage and washing contracts. Hopefully, after all bad news has landed, the market can be a little quieter.
Altcoins are even worse.
Severe market fluctuations + liquidity exhaustion result in:
Star projects generally face a halving, even a 3x drop
CZ-supported projects also hit new lows
Meme, launchpad, and stablecoin public chains collectively collapse
ICOs continuously break issue prices, and financing has clearly cooled
Apart from a very few projects that can still give IDO players 4-5x, the rest are basically finished.
Summary:
This round of market conditions is an accelerated elimination race for altcoins—those with revenue, users, and tracks may still save themselves by bottom-fishing, the rest is just a matter of time.
