Why "yes or no" does not work in investments
If you read the comments under investment and crypto articles, you can notice one persistent feature.
Most questions are posed in binary form:
— "Have the smart money already exited?"
— "Has the altseason started or not?"
— "Is the market currently bullish or bearish?"
— “Is it already too late to buy or can it still be done?”
Each of these questions requires a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ answer.
And it is exactly here that the main problem begins.
## Why do people ask binary questions
Binary questions are not stupidity or laziness.
This is a normal psychological reaction to uncertainty.
It is difficult for a person to live in a world where there are no clear signals.
The brain seeks to simplify reality to a button:
to turn on or off, to buy or sell, to enter or exit.
To this is added the logic of news and headlines.
Media do not work with multidimensionality — they work with simple formulas:
“the market has crashed”, “the market has risen”, “smart money has left.”
And in the end, an expectation arises:
“Tell me yes or no, and I will understand what to do.”
## What is the problem of binary thinking
The financial market does not move like an elevator — strictly up or strictly down.
He does different things simultaneously in different places.
— Bitcoin may be in a sideways movement
— altcoins — are in local correction
— individual sectors — are in growth
— liquidity — to flow between segments
Let's add different timeframes here.
What looks like the ‘end of the trend’ on 1H,
can be a normal pullback on 1W.
Therefore, any answer of ‘yes’ or ‘no’ is easily refuted.
Not because it is false,
and because it is incomplete.
## What does ‘the market is multidimensional’ mean
Multidimensionality is the simultaneous operation of several layers of reality.
Price is not a trend.
Trend is not a phase of the market.
Phase is not the behavior of a specific asset.
Simultaneously operate:
— liquidity
— volumes
— macroeconomics
— market structure
— participants' mood
— risk appetite
Simplifying all this to a single binary answer destroys the context.
## Examples of false binary questions
“Has the alt season started or not?”
— For which altcoins?
— In what timeframe?
— Relative to what?
“Have smart money exited or not?”
— From which segment?
— In which instrument?
— On what horizon?
“Is the market bullish or bearish?”
— For BTC?
— For DeFi?
— For memes?
“Is it time to buy now or is it already too late?”
— For the investor?
— For the trader?
— With what risk?
Without context, these questions do not have a correct answer.
## Why such questions always lead to disputes
One person looks at Bitcoin.
Another — for altcoins.
One analyzes the daily chart.
Another — weekly.
One — investor.
Another — short-term trader.
And both can be right.
Simply, everyone is in their own coordinate system.
The dispute arises not because of ‘different opinions’,
due to the attempt to give one answer to different realities.
## How to properly formulate questions to the market
Instead of:
“Have smart money exited or not?”
— “What phase is liquidity in now?”
Instead of:
“Has the alt season started or not?”
— “Which market segments are active now?”
Instead of:
“Is it too late or too early to buy?”
— “What is the risk/profit at the current stage?”
A good question does not simplify the market.
It clarifies the context.
## The main conclusion for the investor
The market cannot be reduced to a ‘buy/sell’ button.
Binary thinking is the source of most errors and disappointments.
Understanding multidimensionality does not provide one hundred percent answers,
but gives a key advantage — an adequate perception of reality.
The absence of a simple answer is not a problem.
This is the norm.
If the question sounds like “yes or no” —
most likely, it is incorrectly posed.
The market is not obliged to be simple,
to be profitable.
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