Bitcoin is approaching Christmas 2025 in a fragile but interesting market situation. The price remains around 93,000 USD after weeks of pressure. BeInCrypto has gathered 4 Bitcoin charts that show the market during the end of the correction. However, there is still a lack of clear bullish momentum.
Data shows three main forces at work in the market. New buyers are incurring significant losses, and new whales are capitulating. Macro conditions still dictate the price, although the strength of spot purchases is slowly returning.
4 Bitcoin charts: Short-term holders under pressure.
The first chart shows the realized gains and losses of short-term holders (STH). This group includes coins purchased in recent months. Their 'realized price' is the average purchase cost of these coins.
At the beginning of 2025, STH recorded solid gains. Their average position was 15–20% in profit as Bitcoin rose. This favored profit-taking and intensified selling pressure around the peaks.
Today the situation has reversed. Bitcoin is trading below the realized STH price, and this group is incurring about -10% losses. The histogram on the chart shines red, indicating one of the deepest loss regimes in 2025.
This has two effects. In the short term, these holders may sell at every bounce. Many simply want to break even, which limits increases in their entry zone.
However, deep and lasting losses usually occur later in corrections. This is a signal that weak hands have already suffered significant damage. At some point, the selling strength of this group begins to weaken.
Historically, a feedback signal occurs when the price resumes above the realized STH price. This movement indicates that forced selling is coming to an end, and new demand absorbs supply.
Before that happens, the chart still suggests caution and trading in a range around current levels.
New BTC whales have just capitulated.
The second chart shows realized gains and losses by whale group. It divides flows into 'new whales' and 'old whales'. New whales are large holders who have recently accumulated.
Yesterday, new whales realized $386 million in losses in one day. Their bar on the chart is a massive negative spike. Several other large red bars appear at the recent lows.
Old whales tell a different story. Their losses and gains are smaller and more balanced. They do not exit the market as quickly as new players.
This is a typical setup in late-stage corrections. New whales often buy late, sometimes with leverage or under strong narratives. When the price goes against them, they capitulate first.
This capitulation is structurally beneficial. Coins are moving from weak hands to stronger or smaller buyers. Future selling pressure from this group decreases after such events.
In the short term, such cleanouts can drag the price lower. However, in the medium term, they improve the quality of the Bitcoin holder base.
The market becomes more resilient when frightened large sellers finish their exit.
Real interest rates continue to drive the price of BTC.
The third chart shows Bitcoin overlaid with inverted two-year real interest rates in the US. Real rates are the interest rates adjusted for inflation. In 2025, the series moves almost point for point with BTC.
As real rates decline, the inverted line goes up. Bitcoin usually rises with it because liquidity improves. Lower real rates make risky assets more attractive than safe bonds.
Since the end of summer, real rates have been rising again. The inverted line is trending downwards, and Bitcoin follows it. This shows that macro conditions still determine the main trend.
Cuts in rates by the Fed alone may not be enough. What matters is how the market expects changes in real debt costs. If inflation expectations fall faster than nominal rates, real rates may even rise.
For Bitcoin, a lasting new bullish impulse requires easier real conditions. As long as the bond market does not price in this change, BTC rallies face macro obstacles.
4 Bitcoin charts: Buyers returning to the spot market.
The fourth chart tracks the 90-day CVD indicator of spot market participants on major exchanges. CVD shows the total volume of market orders that exceed the spread.
It shows whether aggressive buyers or sellers dominate the market.
For weeks during the declines, the market was dominated by selling participants in the spot market. Red bars filled the chart as sellers hit buy orders in the spot market. This matched the gradual price decline.
Now the signal has changed. The metric has just become a buying participant in the spot market in advantage, and green bars have appeared on the chart. There are now more aggressive buyers than aggressive sellers in the spot market.
This is an early but significant change. Trend reversals often start with such changes in microstructure. Buyers appear first, then the price stabilizes, and finally, larger flows join.
One day of data is never enough. However, if the green advantage holds, it will confirm the return of real demand. This will show the spot market absorbing supply from short-term holders and capitulating whales.
What does all this mean for the price of Bitcoin before Christmas 2025?
All four charts together show a late-stage correction, not a new bull market.
Short-term holders and new whales are incurring significant losses and continue to sell during rallies. Macroeconomic real rates are dampening risk appetite at the index level.
At the same time, single signals of potential rebounds are visible. The capitulation of new whales cleanses the structure of holders.
Buying spot market participants are returning, which limits the pace of declines.
Approaching the holidays of 2025, Bitcoin remains trapped in a range with a slight bearish advantage and stays around $90,000.
Declines to the average or high $80,000 levels are still possible if real interest rates remain high. A clear bullish signal requires three phenomena to occur simultaneously:
Firstly, the price must return above the realization price of short-term holders and maintain that level. Secondly, real interest rates over two years should start to decline, which will loosen financial conditions.
Finally, thirdly, the dominance of buyers should be maintained, which will confirm strong demand in the spot market.
Up until this point, traders must contend with an unstable market influenced by macro factors and trapped holders. Long-term investors may view this period more as a time for planning than for aggressive bets.
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