Brothers, look at the commotion on-chain, it's getting more and more interesting. Last night and this morning, the splashes from several big whales have stirred the hearts of people in the circle. Let me share my thoughts, and you can ponder over them.
First, this 'BTC OG insider whale'. They deposited 60 million USDC all at once, opening long positions in BTC, SOL, and ETH together, which is indeed impressive, and the average holding price also reveals a confidence of 'my cost is right here'. But the problem lies precisely in this 'confidence'. Before going long, they secretly unstaked ETH, which is quite a slick move. This is equivalent to quietly converting part of their chips from 'long-term deposits' to 'cash available at any time' before revealing their hand. This makes one suspect whether their bold bullish stance is based on absolute confidence in the market or on a more flexible exit strategy that was prepared in advance. There is substantial skepticism in the market, and it's not without reason. This kind of 'open card' contains 'hidden hands'; we can just enjoy the spectacle and not take them as guiding lights.
Talking about 'Maji' is almost like the on-chain version of 'The Wolf is Coming.' Liquidation, recharge, and go long, a series of actions looped. This time, he deposited 250,000 USDC to go long on ETH. What does this indicate? First, his position management may be quite aggressive, with the stop-loss line set too tight, leading to repeated liquidations. Second, he is stubborn, has strong beliefs, or is unwilling to admit defeat. Following the single operations of such whales carries high risks; you never know if his next recharge will arrive on time. His operations resemble a display of a high-risk personal strategy rather than a replicable trend signal.
The actions of the spot whales mentioned later are more worthy of examination. A new address quietly acquired 1900 BTC from OTC, and large traders are re-accumulating nearly 2800 ETH. In the relatively stable period of the market after the interest rate cut expectations are realized, the continuous accumulation of spot assets often carries more weight than the dramatic events in the futures market. Futures trading involves leverage and sentiment, while spot buying reflects a long-term view of real assets. This indicates that a portion of large funds are genuinely collecting chips during the fluctuations.
Therefore, in summary, my analysis is:
The performances of whales in the futures market are more dramatic than instructive. Especially those calls with 'records,' just watch them and avoid following blindly. Their primary goal is to serve their own positions, not to make you rich.
The ongoing buying on the spot market is a positive signal worth paying attention to. It indicates that after the macroeconomic factors settle, some funds believe the current price levels have medium- to long-term value. This usually solidifies the bottom foundation more than the temporary hustle and bustle of the futures market.
The overall market is in a observation phase after the 'shoe dropping.' There will be fluctuations, but the momentum for unilateral surges or crashes may be insufficient, making it more suitable for structural opportunities.
Advice for the brothers:
Stay calm and don't be a fan. Don't idolize any whales, especially those whose operations are controversial. Their trading records are learning materials, not commandments.
Shift focus to the spot market. If you believe the foundation of the bull market is still intact, then using the market's fluctuations and hesitation periods to gradually and strategically invest in the mainstream spot assets you believe in is a more prudent strategy. Futures can be played lightly for enjoyment, but don't make them your main focus.
Pay attention to capital flows. Look more at which sectors or assets are continuously receiving spot capital inflows; this is more meaningful than tracking the liquidation risks of one or two futures whales.
Hold back and wait for clear signals. If you can't see clearly, just hold cash. The market is not short of opportunities; what it lacks is the integrity of your principal. When new incremental funds enter the market and the trend becomes clear again, it's not too late to increase your position.
Remember, in this market, surviving longer is a thousand times more important than earning quickly. Don't be dazzled by stories of overnight riches; maintain your own pace to get your share of the rewards. The greater the storm, the tighter you should grip your helm.
