ETH Rebound Last Night: Value Repair Driven by Multiple Factors

I wasn't surprised by ETH's rebound last night. The moment the market rallied, I realized this wasn't just a simple sentiment recovery, but an upward surge driven by a confluence of factors.

On the macro level, yesterday's announcement of declining inflation expectations became a turning point for market sentiment. The risk of a Fed rate hike has been further mitigated, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut and improving liquidity expectations. ETH, with its combination of technological growth attributes and ecosystem value, naturally became one of the first assets to benefit in this environment. When the data was released, I sensed the market was about to move.

Looking at ETH itself, its recent decline far exceeded that of BTC, with sentiment suppressed to rock bottom. Its positioning and structure clearly showed it was "oversold." Furthermore, the ETH/BTC ratio had fallen to a cyclical low, providing a good foundation for a bullish rebound. Last night's upward movement was indeed a value repair.

Significant large-scale on-chain fund activity was observed. Multiple CEX ETH hot wallets saw net inflows, with large holders converting stablecoins into ETH. This is a typical early positioning signal, indicating that someone was quietly accumulating at low prices. Such actions are often a prelude to a rebound.

The futures market was a key driver. Over the past few days, ETH short positions accumulated excessively, leading to extreme sentiment. Even slight price increases triggered a chain reaction of stop-loss orders and liquidations. Last night's rapid rise was largely driven by the momentum from the squeeze on short positions; the order book showed a typical short squeeze, strong and direct.

Furthermore, ETH's fundamentals continue to improve. Increased L2 activity, stable staking, and a recovering ecosystem have restored market confidence in its long-term value. Institutions understand that the current price is more of a positioning opportunity.

In summary, last night's rebound was not accidental; it was the result of a combination of positive macroeconomic factors, capital inflows, short squeeze, and ecosystem improvement. I tend to view it as ETH's "active repair" in the bottoming area. If the macroeconomy remains stable and ETF funds continue to flow in, this may only be the beginning of a larger market move.

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