In the past two days, the entire internet has been focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, but I want to wake you up in advance:
This wave of good news has already been priced in.
$BTC rose from 80,000 to 94,000, essentially speculating on "interest rate cut expectations" in advance.
The real key is not yesterday, but next week’s yen interest rate hike!
🔥 Why is the yen interest rate hike more dangerous than the Federal Reserve?
Looking back at 1998, Japan's end of ultra-low interest rates triggered a chain reaction in the Asian financial system, causing various countries to collapse under pressure.
The reason is simple:
A large amount of funds borrowed in yen to buy U.S. Treasuries (carry trade), and once the yen strengthens → must sell U.S. Treasuries to pay back → U.S. Treasury yields soar → global risky assets get hammered!
This logic is still completely applicable today.
🔍 Even more bizarre is the recent position holding
The position remains high, yet direction is slow to move,
as if waiting for the moment of the interest rate cut to grab a wave of profit.
The real key event is not today, but:
U.S. CPI data
If CPI significantly exceeds expectations, it will be "negative news stacked on negative news",
and the market will face dual pressure.
📌 Operation advice
Be cautious in the short term and do not blindly chase highs;
Pay attention to Powell's speech:
If dovish → the market may rebound
If hawkish + Japan's interest rate hike is confirmed →
high-risk assets will be even harder to move, everyone must remain vigilant!
