Brothers, I am Muqing. I just reviewed the ETH 1-hour chart, combining on-chain dynamics and market details to break down the intraday trading logic for everyone.
1. Technical Market Positioning
Currently, the 1-hour close is at 3118.81, closely following the Bollinger middle band at 3117.54, with the EMA(7) and MA(30) death cross not repaired, and the MACD above the zero axis but the bars shrinking to a negative -3.92, indicating insufficient short-term bullish momentum.
Strong selling pressure above: accumulation area at 3179.15 resistance + upper Bollinger Band extension.
Strong support below: 2903.45 weekly level accumulation center + lower Bollinger Band defense.
2. Market Maker Thinking Deduction
Current price is in the 'middle ambiguous zone', and market makers prefer to repeatedly clear stop losses in this position.
If most retail investors place short orders near 3179, market makers may first break the previous high of 3124.65 to trigger long positions, then reverse to below 3179 to liquidate long positions.
If retail investors place long orders near 2903, market makers may first sharply drop and pierce 2900 to trigger panic selling, then quickly pull back.
The probability of reverse pinning at key positions is extremely high; we need to 'buy in panic and sell in greed.'
3. On-chain data and news reference
On-chain data: Recent large ETH withdrawals from exchanges have increased, indicating that large holders are accumulating chips, but the futures funding rate is neutral and relatively low, with no signs of fervent emotion.
News: This week, pay attention to the US CPI data and ETH ETF-related progress. If favorable, it may lead to a breakout, but the main force is more likely to use the news to 'sell the fact' and decline.
4. This week's major direction and key positions
Direction: Slightly bearish with volatility. The upper level of 3179 is a strong resistance area, and the lower level of 2903 is a strong support area. The large cycle is converging in a triangle, waiting for a breakout.
Reversal point:
Rise to near 3179: Consider reversing to short
Fall to near 2903: Consider reversing to long
5. Today's steady intraday plan
Conservative strategy: Wait and see. Wait for the price to approach 3179 or 2903 before taking action, abandon operations during the intermediate volatile market.
Aggressive strategy:
Current price 3119 light position short (position ≤3%), stop loss 3135, target 3090.
If it breaks 3130, then stop loss and wait, do not chase long.
All trades must have stop losses, refuse to hold positions. Keep position size within 5%, close positions intraday without holding overnight.
The market is something that is awaited, not something that is created. Before the direction is clear, preserving capital is victory. Follow me for strategy refinement tonight with real-time data.
