#BTC Market Analysis

1. Macroeconomic Expectations

The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points, and this expectation has already been priced in. What will truly influence the direction is the Federal Reserve's wording regarding the future economy and interest rate path.

2. Market Performance

BTC is fluctuating narrowly below $90,000, currently reported at about $89,795, with a 24-hour decline of 1.38%, and overall sentiment is cautious. The "Fear and Greed Index" reports 25, falling in the fear range, with funds mainly on the sidelines.

3. Technical Structure

Hourly RSI at 41, neutral to weak;

MACD is negative, with momentum still downward;

Key Support: $89,200

Key Resistance: $90,700

Short-term trend is weak, typical of a consolidation market before a decision.

4. Macroeconomic Impact Logic

Lowering interest rates usually reduces the dollar yield, constituting a medium-term benefit for risk assets; however, this price reaction entirely depends on whether the Federal Reserve signals "further easing."

If dovish → Risk assets are expected to strengthen

If hawkish → BTC may retrace again

5. Trading Strategy Reference

Volatility will significantly increase before and after the decision, and it is not advisable to overly preemptively bet on the direction.

Key Thoughts:

If support holds, it is still possible to attempt buying on dips, but positions should be light;

If it breaks above $90,700, the short-term trend will turn strong;

If it breaks below $89,200, be cautious of a second dip.

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