$ALLO
The Federal Reserve's year-end interest rate cut is approaching, and the crypto market will experience a huge shock at 3 AM on Thursday!
People in the crypto circle set their alarms! The last major interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve in 2025 will be held this week—FOMC meeting will take place on December 9-10, Eastern Time, directly influencing the direction of Bitcoin and ETH. This core information is crucial; save it to avoid detours!
Key times are locked in; missing it means waiting a year:
Interest rate decision: 3 AM Beijing time on December 11 (Thursday)! CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" indicates that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has soared to 89.6%, with rates likely dropping to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, fully expecting easing measures.
Powell's press conference: starting at 3:30 AM! As a "policy compass," his remarks on the possibility of rate cuts in 2026 could trigger a market tsunami with just one word.
What is the basis for three consecutive rate cuts? The U.S. job market is clearly cooling, with the unemployment rate for graduates aged 20-24 rising to 8.5%. Combined with the core PCE inflation falling to 2.8% in September, these dual signals make easing a natural conclusion, and major Wall Street investment banks like Goldman Sachs have collectively shifted to support rate cuts.
1. Will Powell pour cold water on the prospect of rate cuts in 2026? The market has already bet on two more cuts in March and June next year;
2. Disagreements among the FOMC are intensifying with 4 doves and 4 hawks, and Nomura predicts there could be 4 dissenting votes, hinting at a potential hawkish rebound;
3. Next year, voting members Harker (hawkish) and Paulson (cautious) will speak frequently, setting the tone for next year's market.
History never simply repeats itself! After the September rate cut, there was a liquidation of $1.7 billion in long positions, and the tragic tale of "buy the expectation, sell the fact" is still fresh in memory. If easing occurs as scheduled, funds may once again flood into the crypto market; but if dissenting votes exceed expectations, the market may face a reversal.
Are you betting on BTC and ETH to surge again due to rate cuts, or are you wary of history repeating itself? Will Powell go against the 89.6% expectation of a rate cut? Leave your predictions in the comments!