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What if the year 2025 turns out to be a bear market, and no one notices?
Consider the evidence.
Bitcoin has surpassed its historical peak for the first time in history before the halving. This was not a bull market signal. It was a cycle reversal.
The year 2024 did not mark the beginning of a new bull run. It was a political reassessment. The pro-cryptocurrency administration is factored into the price. And nothing more.
2025 demonstrated all the characteristics of a bear market:
bitcoin's dominance at multi-year highs, while altcoins bleed. three and a half billion dollars outflows from ETFs in one month. a drop of twenty-nine percent compared to October highs. extreme fear readings in sentiment indices.
the paradox that breaks any model: the psychology of a bear market at ninety thousand dollars.
two years ago this price was an euphoric fantasy. today it breeds panic.
the four-year halving cycle is not dead. it was absorbed. one hundred twenty billion dollars in ETF assets under management combined bitcoin with the liquidity cycles of the Federal Reserve. halving still defines supply. but demand now follows the narratives of the Fed, not cryptocurrencies.
what does this inversion mean for 2026?
if the bear market has already occurred, masked by nominal highs, the next phase will be the actual peak of the cliff. the target becomes one hundred fifty to two hundred thousand, as global liquidity expansion forces capital into hard assets.
the crowd is preparing for a crash that has already occurred.
they are afraid when they should be accumulating.
the cycle did not break. it flipped. those who recognize the inversion will seize the next stage. those who await the crash they expect will see it go away without them.
