The big one is coming, this time Japan's interest rate hike is comparable to the crash on October 11. Those going long should be cautious.

The Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates at the monetary policy meeting on December 18-19 will mark a historic turning point in its monetary policy, signaling the end of the 'cheap money' era for the last major economy in the world. This shift will profoundly impact the cryptocurrency market through a complex chain of events.

Once the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, it will directly lead to:

Soaring financing costs: The cost of borrowing yen will no longer be cheap, and the profit margin for arbitrage trading will be significantly compressed or even turn into losses.

Increased exchange rate risk: Interest rate hikes usually lead to the appreciation of the yen, and those shorting the yen will face foreign exchange losses.

This will force global investors to synchronize their positions: Sell cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin → exchange for USD → then use USD to buy yen to repay loans. Due to the good liquidity and high volatility of the cryptocurrency market, it often becomes the preferred target for arbitrage funds when they withdraw. The chain reaction includes:

Market-wide declines and soaring volatility: A large amount of selling can trigger a significant price drop. For example, after the Bank of Japan signaled an interest rate hike, Bitcoin once plummeted over 5% in a single day.

High-leverage positions leading to a series of liquidations: The cryptocurrency market is embedded with a large amount of leverage, and a rapid price drop can trigger forced liquidations of derivative contracts. Recently, under the expectation of an interest rate hike, nearly $1 billion in leveraged positions was liquidated within 24 hours, easily creating a 'downward-liquidation-further decline' death spiral.

🔄 Medium-term evolution: Risk repricing and internal differentiation

After a short-term panic sell-off, the market will enter a medium-term digestion and rebalancing phase. At this time, significant internal differentiation will appear within cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin's 'safe-haven' attribute may be tested: Historical data shows that after an initial drop due to tightened liquidity, Bitcoin sometimes exhibits relative resilience and even rebounds first. This is because, during geopolitical tensions or when the credit of sovereign currencies is impaired, Bitcoin's narrative as a 'super-sovereign' store of value gains attention. The global macro uncertainty brought by Japan's interest rate hike may reinforce some investors' views of Bitcoin as a hedging tool. $BTC $ETH #BNBChain生态代币普涨 #加密市场观察