Crypto friends, I am Zhao Gongming. Last night, the market received a 'nuclear-level' data point—the U.S. September core PCE inflation cooled to 2.8%, paving the way for a rate cut by the Fed next week! This is almost a clear signal of good news, but what about ETH? After a brief surge to 3150, it surprisingly fell all the way back to around 3020! Why did the price drop when the good news was released? What signals are hidden behind this? Follow Zhao Gongming to understand whether ETH has exhausted its good news or is gearing up for a rebound.
News: Good news often signals a 'trend reversal'!
The PCE data is indeed impressive, and a rate cut is almost certain. But you must understand: the market always trades on expectations. This wave of good news may have already been priced in; when the data is actually released, it becomes the perfect opportunity for the main players to 'sell the news.' Last night's trend is typical—'buy the expectation, sell the fact.' Smart money is exiting, while you might still be waiting for a surge.
Technical aspect: 3100 is the 'tombstone' for bulls and bears; if it can't break above, it's a bear market!
The 1-hour chart clearly tells you: 3100 is the short-term life and death line for bulls and bears. ETH fell back down without even touching it. MACD death cross is below the zero axis, energy is weak, and bears completely dominate. The first support below is at 2990, key support is at 2970; once it breaks, 2850 is right in front.
Remember: In a downtrend, all rebounds are to facilitate better declines.
Daily share from Zhao Gongming. If it helps you, you can follow Zhao Gongming to get first-hand news and entry points in the chat room!
Zhao Gongming's views and strategies:
Zhao Gongming believes: the trend is bearish, and rebounds provide you with shorting opportunities!
Advice for holding positions: If ETH rebounds to around 3070, it will be your last chance to sell. Don't fantasize about a reversal.
Advice for those looking to enter the market: Main strategy: short on rallies. Ideal short position is around 3090, with a stop loss placed above 3120. Target first looks at around 3000; if it breaks below 2970, boldly aim for around 2850.
When good news is announced and prices do not rise but fall, this is called 'good news fully priced in', often followed by a significant decline.
If you are often confused by this 'good news decline', not knowing when to run or when to short; if you want to know how to capture high-probability trading signals through 'divergence between news and technicals', you can follow Zhao Gongming. Teach you how to use 'price reactions after data releases' to judge the true intentions of the main force, and no longer be led by news!
