According to JPMorgan analysts, the financial resilience of Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, is now a more critical driver of BTC’s short-term price action than selling pressure from miners — even though miners are facing rising stress and Strategy has not sold a single BTC.

In a recent report led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, JPMorgan noted that Bitcoin’s recent weakness is driven by two main factors: declining network hashrate and mining difficulty, plus market concerns surrounding Strategy’s balance sheet. The drop in hashrate is attributed to China reaffirming its mining bans and high-cost miners outside China shutting down due to falling BTC prices and rising energy costs.

JPMorgan currently estimates Bitcoin’s average production cost at $90,000, down from $94,000 last month, assuming electricity prices of $0.05/kWh. Every additional $0.01/kWh increases costs for high-cost miners by nearly $18,000 per BTC. As Bitcoin trades below production cost, miners are under pressure to sell reserves to stay operational.

However, JPMorgan stresses that miners are no longer the main price driver. Instead, the market is focused on Strategy’s ability to avoid forced Bitcoin sales. Strategy’s enterprise value to Bitcoin holdings ratio currently sits at 1.13, still above the crucial threshold of 1 — signaling that the company is not under immediate liquidation risk.

Additionally, Strategy recently established a $1.44 billion reserve, enough to cover dividend and debt obligations for up to two years, significantly reducing near-term selling pressure. Despite slower accumulation in recent weeks, Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings have now surpassed 650,000 BTC.

MSCI Risk Largely Priced In

Markets are also watching closely for MSCI’s upcoming decision on whether to exclude Strategy from its indices. JPMorgan believes the downside impact is now asymmetric — most of the risk is already priced in. Between October 10 and December 2, Strategy’s stock fell 40%, underperforming Bitcoin by about 20%, wiping out roughly $18 billion in market value.

Previously, JPMorgan estimated $2.8 billion in outflows if removed from MSCI, and up to $8.8 billion if broader index exclusions followed. Still, Michael Saylor reaffirmed: “Index classification does not define us. Our strategy is long-term and our conviction in Bitcoin remains unchanged.”

If Strategy remains in the index, JPMorgan expects both Strategy shares and Bitcoin to rebound sharply toward pre-October liquidation levels.

Mining Cost as a “Soft Bottom”

Historically, Bitcoin’s production cost often acts as a soft price floor. If BTC remains below $90,000 for a prolonged period, additional miners may exit, pushing costs lower and eventually restoring balance. Despite short-term volatility, JPMorgan remains structurally bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term outlook.

Based on volatility comparisons between Bitcoin and gold, the bank suggests a fair-value target near $170,000, opening the door for strong upside over the next 6–12 months if macro conditions stabilize.

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