Current market background: All major cryptocurrencies are in a short-term downtrend, and the market is generally preparing for tonight's NFP data at 9:30 PM, with a risk-averse sentiment.
📉 Interpretation of the trends of the four major cryptocurrencies (15-minute K-line)
1. BTCUSDT: The corrective wave C is extending
Price Action and trends
Current price: Approximately 90,983.54 USDT (as of 5:44 PM).
Trend confirmation: The price has clearly broken below all short-term moving averages (MA7, MA25, MA99) on the 15-minute level, forming a complete bearish arrangement.
Short-term support: The key support levels below are 90,889 USDT and 90,587 USDT (near MA99).
Wave theory interpretation
Assumption: The previous rise (to 94,150 USDT) is the end of an **Impulse Wave**.
Current trend: The current operation is a correction wave, likely an A-B-C zigzag or flat correction.
Wave A: Initial decline (from around 94,150 to around 90,889).
Wave B: Short-term rebound (possibly towards 92,692).
Wave C: The main downward wave that is currently ongoing. Wave C is usually of equal length to Wave A or extends into key areas of Fibonacci retracement.
Wave C target: If wave C continues, the short-term target will look towards the integer level of 90,000 USDT and further down to the structural support area.
2. ETHUSDT: Broken key structure
Price Action and Trends
Current price: approximately 3,129.44 USDT (as of 5:19 PM).
Trend confirmation: ETH has also broken below the MA7, MA25, and MA99 short-term moving averages, establishing a short-term bearish trend.
Key position: The price has broken below the previous consolidation platform, and the 3,150 USDT area has turned from support to resistance in the short term.
Wave theory interpretation
The correction pattern of ETH is highly synchronized with BTC, and it is also in the downward phase of corrective wave C.
Short-term target: The target for wave C will look towards the integer level of 3,100 USDT, as well as the strong support area below at 3,060 - 3,080 USDT. This is the key defense line to prevent a larger level pullback.
3. BNBUSDT: The platform has broken down, and the bearish momentum is accelerating.
Price Action and Trends
Current price: approximately 890.69 USDT (as of 5:49 PM).
Trend confirmation: BNB has broken below the psychological integer level of 900 USDT. The short-term MA7/MA25 moving averages have turned into strong resistance.
Technical formation: Breaking below the key platform of 900 USDT indicates that bearish momentum is accelerating.
Wave theory interpretation
The volatility of BNB is slightly lower than that of BTC and ETH, but the corrective wave structure is clear. The target for its corrective wave C will look towards the support level near 880 USDT, as well as 876 USDT near the 15-minute MA99.
4. SOLUSDT: Testing key support
Price Action and Trends
Current price: approximately 136.56 USDT (as of 5:49 PM).
Trend confirmation: The price of SOL found strong support testing at MA99 (136.59 USDT) near 136.37 USDT. MA7/MA25 has turned into resistance.
Key position: SOL has not yet broken all support levels like BTC/ETH, but it is hovering on the edge of the key support area at 135.74 USDT.
Wave theory interpretation
Currently: SOL is in a relatively strong consolidation correction. If it can hold the MA99 support at 135.74 USDT, the bullish structure has not been completely destroyed.
Once it breaks below: If the NFP data is bearish, leading to an effective price drop below 135 USDT, it will confirm the extension of wave C, with the next target possibly pointing to 132 USDT or even 128 USDT.
Summary: Wave resonance before NFP
All major cryptocurrencies are undergoing a downward movement of short-term corrective wave C, with high consistency in the short-term technical trend.
Before the NFP data is released, these assets tend to continue seeking support at their respective structural support levels (e.g., BTC 90,000 USDT, ETH 3,100 USDT). If the data unexpectedly turns bullish, it could trigger the end of the C wave correction and the beginning of a new wave of upward movement.
