【The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to remain cautious about inflation data】#热门推荐
On December 5, AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver stated that at next Tuesday's policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia may exhibit caution regarding the new monthly inflation data, which shows that price pressures are rising further. However, he added that the RBA may also reiterate its concerns about capacity constraints and warn that if higher inflation proves to be more persistent, it could impact interest rates. Oliver indicated that the RBA is also likely to declare that it will take all necessary measures to bring inflation back to target levels, which opens the door for interest rate hikes next year.#热门话题
Market impact and key points:
· Change in attitude: This analysis suggests that market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia are shifting from "the rate hike cycle is over" to "further rate hikes are still possible". This is an important subtle shift.
· Data-driven: The RBA's future decision-making path will heavily rely on data, especially inflation, employment, and wage growth data. Any data showing inflationary stickiness will increase pressure for rate hikes.
· Focus shift: Market focus will shift from "whether interest rates have peaked" to "how long high rates will last" and "whether the next move will be a hike or a cut". As it stands, the risk of rate hikes has not been fully eliminated.
In simple terms: Inflation data has put pressure on the RBA, forcing it to maintain a hawkish stance. Although it is highly likely that the meeting next week will remain on hold, the statement will be very stern, clearly telling the market "do not rule out the possibility of rate hikes next year," all depending on whether inflation comes down as expected.#热门内容
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