#Multiple U.S. economic indicators are scheduled for release today.

20:30 (UTC+8): November Challenger Job Cuts

21:30 (UTC+8): Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 29, with expectations at 220,000

23:00 (UTC+8):

• November Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

• September Factory Orders monthly rate

Although these employment and supply-side indicators are important, markets remain focused on monetary policy. Current betting data from Polymarket shows a 94% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will implement a 25 bps rate cut in December, indicating strong market conviction regardless of near-term economic releases.

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Quick Market Take

High-confidence rate-cut pricing: A 94% probability means markets are essentially treating the cut as “almost guaranteed.”

Soft job numbers = more dovish fuel: If jobless claims rise or Challenger cuts increase, expectations for further easing could strengthen.

Crypto impact:

• Lower rates → risk-on momentum → typically supportive for BTC, ETH, and majors

• Watch for volatility around release times—liquidity pockets could exaggerate moves.

---$BTC

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