The XRP price has failed to join the weekly gains of Bitcoin and Ethereum and remains within the narrow range it has held since mid-November.
Meanwhile, a bullish on-chain signal has reached a 3-month high, which normally serves as a strong basis for recovery. Yet, the XRP price has barely moved. Let's understand why.
Inactivity has reached a 3-month high, but long-term holders continue to sell
The story begins with the spent coins. Spent coins measure how much older XRP tokens move each day, and the metric has collapsed from 186.36 million XRP on November 15 to just 16.32 million XRP now. This is a dramatic decline of 91% and the lowest level in three months.
When the older supply stops moving, the selling pressure diminishes significantly. Therefore, the dormancy, which increases when the spent coins decline, has now reached its strongest level in three months. Under normal market conditions, this shift alone would support the XRP price.
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But the XRP price has not reacted because the conviction groups are moving in the opposite direction.
HODL Waves, which track the supply held by each age group, show a clear distribution from older holders in the past month. The 6–12 month group has decreased from 26.18% of the supply to 21.65%. The 1–2 year group has decreased from 9.34% to 8.61%. Even the 2–3 year group has decreased from 14.58% to 14.12%.
These groups form the backbone of trend strength because they control the supply that rarely moves. When they reduce their holdings, upward attempts lose strength.
This also explains why even recent whale purchases, which we discussed earlier, have not been enough to raise the XRP price. Whales have increased their exposure, but persistent outflows from older holders still outweigh that demand. Until the long-term supply stops leaving these groups, dormancy alone cannot drive a breakout.
XRP price must close above $2.28 to break out of its range.
The chart reflects the same struggle. The XRP price has been stuck between $2.28 and $1.81 since November 15 and has not produced a single daily close above $2.28. This remains the key that needs to be broken to build momentum. A successful move above $2.28 would open the next targets at $2.56 and $2.69, areas where XRP has previously reacted strongly.
A close below $1.98 would, however, weaken the current structure and increase the likelihood of a return to $1.81.
For now, the message is clear. Dormancy is at a 3-month high due to a 3-month low in spent coins, but long-term holders continue to distribute. Until these conviction groups stabilize and a daily candle closes above $2.28, the XRP price will remain within its range.
